经济增长目标压力如何影响企业杠杆率?——理论模型与经验证据  

How Does Economic Growth Targets Pressure Affect Corporate Leverage?-Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：杨金强[1,2] 林春鹏 胡涛 YANG Jin-qiang;LIN Chun-peng;HU Tao(School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433 [2]上海国际金融与经济研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2025年第1期157-178,共22页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72072108);国家自然科学基金项目(71772112)。

摘　　要：目标引领增长是中国经济发展的一个关键特征,地方政府的经济增长目标管理会显著影响地方经济活动,从而影响企业决策。本文构建了一个包含“政府-企业”的两部门连续时间模型,分析地方政府增长目标管理以及财政支持政策对企业资本结构决策的影响,并在此基础上,以1998-2013年中国281个地级市经济增长目标数据和工业企业数据库为样本进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,地方经济增长目标压力显著推高了辖区企业杠杆率;地方政府通过融资优惠与税收减免两种支持政策,能有效调节经济增长目标压力对企业杠杆率的影响。进一步分析发现,经济增长目标压力在经济下行时期对企业杠杆率的推高效应更强,说明地方政府在不同经济时期的行为具有差异性。同时,经济增长目标压力在推高企业杠杆率的过程中,并未有效提高信贷资金的配置效率,信贷资金更多地配置给国有企业和具有政治联系的民营企业。本文拓展了经济增长目标管理在微观层面影响的相关研究,为推动高质量发展、实现经济稳增长与防风险长期均衡提供了政策依据。"Target Drives Growth"is a key feature of China's economic growth.The management of economic growth goals by local governments can significantly affect local economic activities and thus corporate decision-making.This paper constructs a two-sector continuous model to analyze the impact of growth target management and fiscal support policies by local governments on corporate capital structure.The city's economic growth target data and the industrial enterprise database are used to empirically test the hypothesis,showing that:The economic growth pressure significantly pushes up the leverage of local enterprises,resulting in a tendency of debt overhang.Local governments can effectively adjust the impact of economic growth pressure on corporate leverage through financing preferential and tax relief.Further analysis finds that:the economic growth pressure has a stronger push-up effect during the economic downturn,and has not effectively improved the allocation efficiency of credit funds,allocating more credit funds to state-owned enterprises and private enterprises with political ties.This paper expands the research on the impact of economic growth target management at the micro level,and provides a policy basis for promoting high-quality development and achieving a long-term balance between stable economic growth and risk prevention.

关 键 词：经济增长目标压力 企业杠杆率 地方政府行为 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]