观测不确定性影响下黄河水源涵养区径流情势变化特征  

Trend detections of flow regime metrics in the water conservation zone of the Yellow River considering observation uncertainty

作　　者：张永勇[1] 韩冰 曹灿 翟晓燕[3] ZHANG Yongyong;HAN Bing;CAO Can;ZHAI Xiaoyan(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of Ministry of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《地理学报》2025年第1期28-40,共13页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071041,42171047);国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3201102)。

摘　　要：径流观测不确定性是水文学研究领域尚未解决的关键问题之一。当前研究多集中于观测不确定性的来源及其影响解析等,但关于观测不确定性对径流情势特征指标变化趋势的影响研究较少。本文利用1971—2020年黄河水源涵养区5个水文站(黄河源区黄河沿、唐乃亥和兰州站,渭河咸阳站和伊洛河黑石关站)日径流观测序列,结合正态分布误差模型和趋势检验,检测了观测不确定性影响下五大径流情势特征(量级、事件发生频率、变率、历时和出现时间)16个指标的变化趋势,并采用不确定性宽度、指标斜率显著性变化的个数占比、变异系数和偏离程度量化了观测不确定性的影响。结果表明:①所有站点径流情势呈现低流量显著增加,高流量、平均流量、变率和历时显著减少的特征;黑石关站平均流量和高流量量级、变率和历时显著减少,频率显著增加;咸阳站低流量量级和出现时间显著增加,高流量量级、频率和变率显著减少;黄河源区低流量量级和高流量出现时间显著增加,低流量频率、高流量量级和变率显著减少。②观测不确定性对28.75%的径流情势特征指标的变化趋势影响明显,其中11.25%的指标变化趋势由显著变为不显著和17.5%的指标由不显著变为显著;对其他指标的变化趋势没有影响,其中变化趋势仍保持显著的指标占比为18.75%,变化趋势仍不显著的指标占比为52.50%。③观测不确定性对频率指标的变化趋势影响最大,影响次之为历时指标、变率指标和出现时间指标,而对量级指标的影响最小。Runoff observation uncertainty is one of the key unresolved issues in the field of hydrology.Current studies mainly focus on the uncertainty sources and their impacts,but the effects of observation uncertainty on changes of entire flow regime characteristics are still rare.This study collects daily runoff observation series from 1971 to 2020 at five hydrological stations in the water conservation zone of the Yellow River(Huangheyan,Tangnaihai,and Lanzhou stations in the Yellow River Source Region,Xianyang Station in the Weihe River,and Heishiguan Station in the Yiluo River).Changes in 16 metrics from five main flow regime characteristics(magnitude,frequency of events,variability,duration,and timing)are detected by the trend tests,and the effects of observation uncertainty on trends of flow regime metrics are evaluated by adopting a normal distribution error model and some metrics,i.e.,the uncertainty width,significance change rate of slopes,coefficient of variation,and degree of deviation.Results showed that:(1)At all the stations,flow regimes showed significant increases in the low flow magnitude,and significant decreases in the high and average flow magnitude,variability and duration.At the Heishiguan Station,the magnitude,variability and duration metrics significantly decreased,while the frequency metrics significantly increased.At the Xianyang Station,the low flow magnitude and timing metrics significantly increased,while the high flow magnitude,frequency and variability metrics significantly decreased metrics.In the Yellow River Source Region,the low flow magnitude and high flow timing metrics significantly increased,while the low flow frequency,high flow magnitude and variability metrics significantly decreased.(2)Observation uncertainty considerably affected the trend changes of 28.75%of total flow regime metrics at all the five stations.Among these,the trends of 11.25%of total metrics changed from significance to insignificance,and those of 17.5%of total metrics changed from insignificance to significance

关 键 词：观测不确定性 径流情势 正态分布误差模型 趋势检测 黄河水源涵养区 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]