气候变化和水库运行对长江流域水文情势的影响预估  

Projection of the impact of climate change and reservoir on the flow regime in the Yangtze River basin

作　　者：刘罕奇 王婷婷[1] 冯瑶 王红 孙福宝[1] 刘文彬 LIU Hanqi;WANG Tingting;FENG Yao;WANG Hong;SUN Fubao;LIU Wenbin(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理学报》2025年第1期41-60,共20页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所可桢—秉维青年人才计划项目(2021RC002)。

摘　　要：预估气候变化和水库运行对流域水文情势的影响,对于变化环境下流域水资源安全、生物多样性保护和水生态修复治理具有重要意义。本文基于经偏差校正的气候模式数据,应用改进水库模块的SWAT模型和水文指标法,预估了21世纪气候变化和水库运行对长江流域水文情势的影响。研究表明:①相较于原模型,改进水库模块的SWAT模型对典型水文站日径流和水文情势指标的整体模拟效果有较好提升,其中日径流模拟值与观测值的NSE(Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient)和KGE(Kling-Gupta Efficiency Coefficient)分别提升0.01~0.26和0.01~0.08;②未来气候变化使长江流域径流呈上升趋势,其中1—4月份流量增加较为明显(最大增幅为17%),同时增加了汛前流量变异性(最大增幅为18%)、极端洪峰流量发生次数、极端洪峰流量历时和流量正变化率;③水库运行增加了枯季径流(最大增幅为67%),减少了极端洪峰流量的发生次数(最大变化幅度为-16%),并缩短了极端洪峰流量(-10%~-4%)和极端枯季流量(-51%~-38%)的历时,提升了径流的稳定性。长江上游控制性水库群运行部分抵消了未来气候变化对径流的影响,但受调蓄规则和库容总量的局限其对径流的调控能力仍很有限,未来需要充分考虑气候变化的影响规划水库建设或动态优化水库调蓄规则。Projecting changes in flow regime under climate change and reservoir operations is crucial for safeguarding water security,preserving biodiversity and restoring aquatic ecosystems of a basin.Leveraging bias-corrected climate model data,this study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)with an improved reservoir module and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration to project the impacts of climate change and reservoir operations on the flow regime of the Yangtze River basin in the 21st century.The results showed that:(1)The improved SWAT model outperformed the original version,enhancing the simulation accuracy of daily streamflow and hydrological indicators at representative stations.The NSE(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient)and KGE(Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient)of simulation and observation of daily streamflow increased by 0.01-0.26 and 0.01-0.08,respectively.(2)Climate change is projected to increase streamflow,in which the streamflow increases significantly from January to April(the maximum increase is 17%).Meanwhile,climate change increases the variability of pre-flood streamflow(the maximum increase is 18%),the frequency of extremely high pulse,the duration of extremely high pulse and the rise rate of flow.(3)Reservoir operations effectively replenish dry-season flows(the maximum increase is 67%),reduce the frequency of extremely high pulse(the maximum decrease is 16%),and shorten the duration of both extremely high pulse(by-10%to-4%)and extremely low pulse(by-51%to-38%).Reservoir operations improve the stability of flow.While upstream reservoir operations can partially counteract climate-induced streamflow changes,their regulatory capacity is constrained by operational rules and total storage capacity.Therefore,adjusting reservoir operation strategies in response to the impacts of climate change on streamflow becomes imperative.

关 键 词：气候变化 水库运行 水文情势 SWAT水文模型 长江流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] P467[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV697[天文地球—地球物理学]