全程耦合框架下中国虚拟水贸易  

China's virtual water trade through the metacoupling framework

作　　者：孙才志[1,2] 胡淼 郑靖伟[3] SUN Caizhi;HU Miao;ZHENG Jingwei(Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education,Institute of Marine Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,Liaoning,China;University Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Economy High-Quality Development of Liaoning Province,Dalian 116029,Liaoning,China;School of Geography,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋可持续发展研究院教育部人文社科重点研究基地,大连116029 [2]辽宁省“海洋经济高质量发展”高校协同创新中心,大连116029 [3]辽宁师范大学地理科学学院,大连116029

出　　处：《地理学报》2025年第1期81-100,共20页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19AJY010)。

摘　　要：作为理解当代可持续性挑战的概念框架,全程耦合强调了人地系统动态互动的多区域联系,将其用于探究区域内外的水供需相互作用能够为水资源可持续管理提供理论支撑。本文基于该框架,应用环境扩展的投入产出法与WWZ增加值分解法,量化了中国虚拟水贸易中发送—接收系统以及外溢系统的全程耦合强度与联系,并评估了虚拟水贸易对区域产生的影响。结果表明:①2012—2017年中国各省份内部消费虚拟水量平均占总虚拟水量的78.05%;各省份以远距离虚拟水贸易为主,平均是周边虚拟水贸易强度的4.96倍;制造业和农业所消费的虚拟水最多。②与外溢系统相关的上游和下游虚拟水溢出量呈增多趋势,平均占总贸易虚拟水量的46.28%;江苏和吉林产生了最多的上游虚拟水溢出,新疆和黑龙江产生了最多的下游虚拟水溢出。③2017年上游虚拟水溢出最大的驱动力为制造业和建筑业,下游为制造业和农业;远距离贸易产生了较多的上游和下游虚拟水溢出。④虚拟水贸易使中国SDG 6.4目标的实现提升了5.75%,远距离贸易产生的贡献高于周边贸易;虚拟水贸易最有利于缓解经济发达水资源禀赋差的省份用水压力,但对部分经济非发达省份产生了负面影响。As a conceptual framework for understanding contemporary sustainability challenges,the metacoupling framework emphasizes the dynamic interactions and multi-regional connections within human-environment systems.Utilizing this framework to investigate the interactions between water supply and demand within and between regions can provide theoretical support for the sustainable management of water resources.In this study,we applied the environmentally extended input-output method and the Wang,Wei,and Zhu(WWZ)value-added decomposition method to quantify the metacoupling intensity and connections in the sending-receiving and spillover systems of China's virtual water trade.We also assessed the impact of virtual water trade on various regions.The results indicate the following:(1)Internal consumption and trade dynamics(2012-2017):The average internal consumption of virtual water within a province accounted for 78.05%of the total virtual water volume.Provinces primarily engaged in long-distance virtual water trade,which was on average 4.96 times the volume of peripheral virtual water trade.The manufacturing and agricultural sectors were the largest consumers of virtual water.(2)Spillover systems and trends:Upstream and downstream virtual water spillovers associated with the spillover systems exhibited an increasing trend,averaging 46.28%of the total traded virtual water volume.Jiangsu and Jilin produced the highest upstream virtual water spillover,whereas Xinjiang and Heilongjiang produced the highest downstream virtual water spillover.(3)Sectoral drivers and spillovers(2017):In 2017,the manufacturing and construction industries were the primary drivers of the upstream virtual water spillover,whereas the manufacturing and agricultural sectors were the primary drivers of the downstream virtual water spillovers.Long-distance trade generated a greater amount of both upstream and downstream virtual water spillovers.(4)Contribution to SDG 6.4:Virtual water trade contributed to a 5.75%improvement in achieving China's SDG 6.4

关 键 词：全程耦合 虚拟水贸易 发送—接收系统 外溢系统 量化 影响 可持续发展 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F124[经济管理—世界经济]