欠发达山区老年人相对贫困风险与发展恢复力评估  

Evaluation and formation mechanism of elder adults' development resilience under the disturbance of relative poverty risk in Shizhu county, Chongqing

作　　者：刘倩[1] 周晶[1] 雷洋洋 陈佳[2] 喻忠磊 杨新军[2] LIU Qian;ZHOU Jing;LEI Yangyang;CHEN Jia;YU Zhonglei;YANG Xinjun(Chongqing Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Ecological Restoration in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China;Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development,Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization Jointly Built by Henan Province and Ministry of Education,Henan University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学三峡库区地表过程与生态修复重庆市重点实验室,重庆401331 [2]西北大学城市与环境学院,西安710127 [3]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明省部共建协同创新中心,郑州450046

出　　处：《地理学报》2025年第1期236-256,共21页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41901206)。

摘　　要：农村老年人贫困问题是实现共同富裕目标的重要挑战,发展恢复力作为生计与贫困研究的新视角,对定量分析农村“银发贫困”问题,提出农村老年人贫困治理对策具有重要意义。本文构建老年人相对贫困风险—发展恢复力整合框架,以重庆武陵山区石柱县为例,测度2010—2020年农村老年人相对贫困风险与发展恢复力,揭示其分异性及时空变化特征,诊断相对贫困风险与发展恢复力关联类型和反馈路径,解释发展恢复力的决定因子。研究表明:①研究区老年人的相对贫困风险增长19.3%,健康风险、自然灾害风险较高,市场风险和健康风险上升趋势较突出。传统和保障生计类型的农村老年人相对贫困风险水平较高;相对贫困风险水平具有空间异质性,中海拔山区相对贫困风险水平增加较明显。②各生计类型间老年人发展恢复力水平及增幅差异明显,多元和临工生计类型的农村老年人发展恢复力优势性突出。研究区的发展恢复力空间分异明显,西北至东南呈现“高—低—高—低”多梯度分布态势。③相对贫困风险与发展恢复力共同驱动农户状态变化,并形成正负向两种反馈路径。④发展恢复力形成受多层面要素共同影响,社区环境影响发展恢复力的历史积累和后续发展,政策保障提供了抵御风险冲击的安全底线,代际支持发挥风险分担机制,老年人生产经营状况和心理偏好是发展恢复力形成的内生驱动力。The poverty among elder adults in rural areas of China poses a significant challenge to the achievement of shared prosperity.The concept of development resilience offers a novel perspective for examining livelihood and poverty,with scientific implications for quantitatively analyzing"silver-haired poverty"and proposing countermeasures of alleviating poverty among the rural elderly.This paper constructs a comprehensive framework for analyzing the relative poverty risk and development resilience of the rural elder adults,using a case study conducted in Shizhu,a mountainous county of Chongqing.Here,the paper evaluates the relative poverty risk and development resilience of the rural elder adults from 2010 to 2020,revealing their heterogeneity and spatiotemporal change characteristics.Moreover,the paper elucidates the relationship and feedback paths between relative poverty risk and development resilience,while explaining the determinants of development resilience.The results indicate that:(1)The relative poverty risk increased by 19.3%from 2010 to 2020.Health and natural disaster risks emerged as primary concerns,with market risk and health risk showing a noticeable upward trend.The rural elder adults engaged in traditional and guaranteed livelihoods faced a relatively high risk of poverty.The spatial distribution of relative poverty risk showed heterogeneity,with middle-altitude mountain areas experiencing a more pronounced increase in this risk.(2)The development resilience varied significantly among the elder adults across different livelihood types,as did the extent to which it increased.Rural areas witnessed the highest level of resilience development among elder adults engaged in multi-crop farming and casual labor.The spatial differentiation of development resilience in the study area was clearly evident,presenting a multi-gradient distribution pattern characterized by alternating high and low values from northwest to southeast.(3)Relative poverty risk coupled with development resilience given the dynamics st

关 键 词：老年人 “银发贫困” 发展恢复力 相对贫困 欠发达山区 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] D669.6[政治法律—政治学]