1961—2020年长江三峡地区降水变化特征分析  

Precipitation variation characteristics in the Three Gorges Region of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：邹旭恺[1] 陈鲜艳[1] 赵珊珊[1] 陈峪[1] 曾红玲[1] 张强[1] ZOU Xukai;CHEN Xianyan;ZHAO Shanshan;CHEN Yu;ZENG Hongling;ZHANG Qiang(National Climate Centre,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2024年第6期44-52,共9页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J071);水利部三峡局地气候监测项目(SK2023019);中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(No.0799279)共同资助。

摘　　要：选用1961—2020年长江三峡地区33个国家地面气象观测站逐日降水资料,分析该地区年、季、月不同强度等级降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:三峡地区降水充沛,区域平均年降水量为1200 mm,年降水日数达155 d。该地区降水量和降水强度年变化均为单峰型,峰值出现在7月;降水日数年变化为双峰型,峰值出现在春季,次峰出现在秋季。近60 a,三峡地区年降水日数呈显著减少趋势,年降水强度显著增大,但年降水量变化趋势不显著;该地区春季、秋季、冬季的降水日数显著减少,其中,10—12月小雨日数减幅较大;秋季、冬季降水强度显著增大,其中,1月、2月和11月增幅较为明显。三峡地区年降水日数空间分布为全区一致的减少趋势,降水强度普遍为增大趋势;降水量变化分布不均匀,为中部地区减小、东西部地区增大。The study analyzes the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of annual,seasonal,and monthly precipitation of different intensity levels using daily precipitation data from 33 national ground meteorological observation stations in the Three Gorges region of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2020.The results indicate that the Three Gorges region is abundant in precipitation,with an average annual precipitation of 1200 mm and an annual precipitation day of 155 d.The monthly variations of precipitation amount and intensity in this region are unimodal,with the peaking pattern in July;while the monthly variations of precipitation days are bimodal,with peaks in spring and secondary peaks in autumn.Over the past 60 years,there has been a significant decreasing trend in the annual precipitation days in the Three Gorges region,while annual precipitation intensity has significantly increased.However,there is no significant trend in annual precipitation amount.The number of precipitation days in spring,autumn,and winter has declined significantly,with a larger reduction in light rain days from October to December.Meanwhile,precipitation intensity has markedly increased in autumn and winter,with notable increases occurring in January,February,and November.The spatial distribution of annual precipitation days in the Three Gorges region shows a consistent decreasing trend across the entire region,while precipitation intensity generally shows an increasing trend;the distribution of precipitation amount changes is uneven,with a decrease in the central region and an increase in the eastern and western regions.

关 键 词：降水量 降水日数 降水强度 全球变暖 

分 类 号：P463.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]