工业经济发展与环境污染水平耦合协调关系及影响因素——以云南省为例  

The coupling and coordination relationship between industrial economic development and environmental pollution level and its influencing factors:A case study of Yunnan Province

作　　者：樊艳翔 雷社平[2] 贺灿飞[1,3,4] 李文韬 FAN Yanxiang;LEI Sheping;HE Canfei;LI Wentao(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871;School of Public Policy and Administration,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072;Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy,Beijing 100871;Southwest United Graduate School,Kunming 650092,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]西北工业大学公共政策与管理学院,西安710072 [3]北京大学-林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心,北京100871 [4]西南联合研究生院,昆明650092

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2025年第2期1-13,共13页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：云南省西南联合研究生院科技专项-基础研究和应用基础研究重大项目(202302AO370007)资助。

摘　　要：经济与环境协调发展问题是国内外可持续发展的关键性问题,近年来我国工业发展的区域性转移与扩散对工业经济与环境的协调发展提出了更高的要求。当前云南省正处于工业经济高速发展阶段,深入探究云南省的工业经济与环境的协调发展问题具有深刻研究价值。基于此,文中使用层次分析法、熵权法与博弈论组合赋权法考虑主观与客观两个层面对云南省环境污染水平进行了综合性测度,同时引入耦合协调发展水平模型分析云南省工业经济与环境的耦合协调发展状态。并引入了机器学习Catboost模型在对云南省工业经济增长与环境污染耦合协调关系的主导影响因素进行识别,在此基础上对主导影响因素进行偏效应分析。研究发现:1)研究期内,云南省各地区在早期工业经济发展与环境之间存在失调发展状态,但这种失调状态都主要集中于2008年-2011年和2008年-2014年两个时间段。近年来各地区整体均向着良好的发展趋势转变,不断向更高程度的耦合协调发展状态跃进。2)耦合协调发展水平整体呈现着中间高,四周低的空间分布格局,由此也提醒有关部门需要及时注意云南省边境地区的发展问题,充分利用好边境的区位优势,促进云南边境地区持续健康发展。3)交通运输水平、对外开放水平、人口集聚水平、地区供水能力、财政投入水平对云南省工业经济与环境污染耦合协调发展起着主导作用。The coordinated development of the economy and environment is a critical issue for sustainable development both domestically and internationally.In recent years,the regional transfer and proliferation of industrial development in China have raised higher demands for the harmonious integration of industrial economy and environmental sustainability.Currently,Yunnan Province is experiencing rapid industrial economic growth,making it essential to investigate the coordinated development of the industrial economy and environment in this region.This research employs hierarchical analysis,entropy weight method,and a combination of game theory and empowerment methods to evaluate both subjective and objective levels of environmental pollution in Yunnan Province comprehensively.Additionally,the study introduces a coupled coordinated development level model to analyze the positive interactions between industrial economic growth and environmental health in Yunnan Province.The machine learning CatBoost model is also utilized to identify the dominant influencing factors affecting the coupled and coordinated relationship between industrial economic expansion and environmental pollution in Yunnan Province,followed by an analysis of these factors in terms of bias effects.The findings reveal that,during the study period,all regions in Yunnan Province experienced a dysfunctional state in the interplay between industrial economic development and environmental health,particularly during the periods of 2008-2011 and 2008-2014.However,in recent years,the overall development trajectory across all regions has shifted towards a more favorable trend,indicating a continuous advancement towards a higher degree of coupled and coordinated development.The overall degree of coupling coordination development exhibits a spatial distribution pattern characterized by high values in the central region and lower values in the surrounding areas.This observation underscores the necessity for relevant departments to pay timely attention to the development

关 键 词：云南省 工业经济发展 环境污染水平 耦合协调关系 

分 类 号：X7[环境科学与工程—环境工程]