后扶时期的三江源生态移民定居行为影响因素和作用机制  

Influencing factors and mechanism of settlement behavior of eco-migrants in Three-River Source Area during the post-relocation period

作　　者：胡西武 陈超[1] 杨海娟[3] HU Xiwu;CHEN Chao;YANG Haijuan(School of Economics and Management,Qinghai Minzu University,Xining 810007;Institute for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality,Tianjin University-Qinghai Minzu University,Xining 810007;Xinhua College of Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]青海民族大学经济与管理学院,西宁810007 [2]天津大学-青海民族大学双碳研究院,西宁810007 [3]宁夏大学新华学院,银川750021

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2025年第2期76-86,共11页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42461034,42061033);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2024AAC03324);青海民族大学研究生创新项目(65M2024003)资助。

摘　　要：文中基于2023年三江源地区52个生态移民村1114份调查问卷,构建期望确认模型(ECM)和计划行为模型(TPB)相融合的二阶结构方程模型,分析三江源生态移民定居行为的影响因素和作用机制。研究表明:1)感知定居有用性(q=0.24)、定居满意度(q=0.33)、定居期望确认度(q=0.13)和定居主观规范(q=0.09)对定居态度有显著的正向影响;文化适应压力(q=-0.11)对定居态度有显著的负向影响;定居态度(q=0.86)对定居意愿有显著的正向影响;定居意愿(q=0.68)对定居行为有显著的正向影响。2)入住时间、经济收入和是否返迁的不同移民群组,其定居行为的影响因素有显著差异。3)感知空间剥夺对“感知定居有用性→定居意愿/定居态度”“定居期望确认度→定居意愿/定居态度”“定居满意度→定居意愿/定居态度”关系的调节作用显著。4)定居态度对“定居期望确认度→定居意愿”“定居满意度→定居意愿”“感知定居有用性→定居意愿”“文化适应压力→定居意愿”关系的完全中介效应显著;定居态度对“定居主观规范→定居意愿”关系的部分中介效应显著。研究结果可以为三江源地区人口高质量发展、共同富裕提供有益参考。Based on 1,114 valid questionnaires from 52 eco-migrant villages in 2023,this study analyzes the influencing factors and mechanisms of settlement behavior of eco-migrants in Three-River Source Area by developing a new theoretical model:structural equation model,by integrating Expectation Confirmation Model with Theory of Planned Behaviour(ECM-TPB).The results show as follows.1)Perceived settlement usefulness(q=0.24),settlement satisfaction(q=0.33),settlement expectation confirmation(q=0.13),and settlement subjective norms(q=0.09)significantly positively affect the settlement attitudes,cultural adaptation pressure(q=-0.11)significantly negatively affects the settlement attitudes,settlement attitudes(q=0.86)have a significant positive effect on settlement intention,and settlement intention(q=0.68)has a significant positive effect on settlement behavior.2)Factors influencing the settlement behaviors are significantly different among those eco-migrant groups characterized by period of residence,economic income,and home-return intention,respectively.3)Perceived spatial deprivation significantly moderates the relationships between"perceived settlement usefulness→settlement intention and attitude,""settlement expectation confirmation→settlement intention and attitude,"and"settlement satisfaction→settlement intention and attitude."4)Settlement attitudes significantly and completely mediate the relationships of"settlement expectation confirmation→settlement intention""settlement satisfaction→settlement intention""perceived settlement usefulness→settlement intention"and"cultural adaptation pressure→settlement intention",and they also have a significant and partial mediating effect on the relationship of"settlement subjective norms→settlement intention".The findings provide valuable insights for the high-quality development and common prosperity of the population in the Three-River Source Area during the post-relocation period.

关 键 词：生态移民 定居行为 结构方程模型 人口现代化 后扶时期 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]