中国农业用水回弹效应及影响机制研究  

Research on the rebound effect of agricultural water use and its impact mechanism in China

作　　者：盛洋 徐海量[2] SHENG Yang;XU Hailiang(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046;Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 83001l1,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2025年第2期150-160,共11页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金NSFC-新疆联合基金重点支持项目(U1603235)资助。

摘　　要：基于直接比较法和GIS空间分析方法,对2003-2022年中国农业用水回弹效应进行了定量评估和空间解析,并采用空间计量模型分析了其影响机制。结果表明:1)中国农业用水回弹效应展现出较大的波动幅度,均值为96.177%,表现为部分回弹效应,表明农业用水效率提高引起的农业用水需求量减少,因农业用水回弹效应带来的农业用水消耗量增加被部分抵消。2)中国农业用水回弹效应表现出显著的空间分异性,空间演化态势呈现由南强北弱到西强东弱的过程。农业用水回弹效应的变化幅度北方大于南方,正向增长区域主要分布在西北和东北地区,其他区域基本呈现负向变化。3)中国农业用水回弹效应的空间重心整体向北方移动。农业用水回弹效应极化趋势明显,各省份的差距存在差异性减小,收敛性增强的演化过程,并呈现较为显著的空间均衡性特征。4)农业机械总动力、农田有效灌溉面积、居民收入、农业生产规模、气温对中国农业用水回弹效应产生积极影响,降水为负向作用,且部分因素具有空间溢出效应。未来,在推动农业灌溉技术进步的同时,必须注重经济手段,制定并实施一系列补充性政策,有效降低农业用水回弹效应,促进可持续的农业生产。Using the direct comparison method and GIS spatial analysis,we conducted a quantitative assessment and spatial analysis of the rebound effect of agricultural water use in China from 2003 to 2022.Additionally,a spatial econometric model was employed to analyze the influencing mechanisms.The results demonstrate that:1)The rebound effect of agricultural water use in China exhibits considerable fluctuations,with an average of 96.177%.This partial rebound effect indicates that the reduction in agricultural water demand due to improved water use efficiency is partially offset by the increased consumption caused by the rebound effect.2)There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the rebound effect,with a shift in spatial evolution from stronger effects in the south and weaker in the north to stronger in the west and weaker in the east.The magnitude of change is greater in the north area than in the south area,with positive growth areas mainly located in the northwest and northeast,while other regions generally show negative changes.3)The spatial center of gravity of the agricultural water rebound effect has shifted northward.A clear trend of polarization is evident,with provincial disparities decreasing and convergence increasing,indicating more pronounced spatial equilibrium characteristics.4)Factors such as the total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area,household income,agricultural production scale,and temperature positively influence the rebound effect,while precipitation has a negative impact.Some factors exhibit spatial spillover effects.In the future,alongside the advancements in agricultural irrigation technology,it is essential to focus on economic strategies and implement a series of complementary policies to effectively reduce the agricultural water rebound effect and promote sustainable agricultural production.

关 键 词：农业用水 回弹效应 影响因素 中国 

分 类 号：S27[农业科学—农业水土工程]