中国粮食供应链韧性:时空演变及驱动因素  

Resilience of China’s Grain Supply Chain:Its Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors

作　　者：曾俊杰 李贤柏[1] 蔡扬 喻莆俊 严笑 Zeng Junjie;Li Xianbai;Cai Yang;Yu Pujun(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 4001311,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆401331 [2]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆401331 [3]巫山县县城新区建设管理委员会,重庆404700

出　　处：《新疆农垦经济》2025年第2期27-38,92,共13页Xinjiang State Farms Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:22BJL103)。

摘　　要：中国粮食供应链在维护国家粮食安全、推进乡村振兴、建设农业强国等方面发挥着重要作用。文章基于全国31省2011—2022年的数据,构建粮食供应链韧性评价指标体系,运用熵值法对粮食供应链韧性进行评价,结合核密度估计法、Dagum基尼系数和Moran’sI指数法分析粮食供应链韧性的时空演变特征,并使用地理探测器来识别粮食供应链韧性的影响因子。研究发现:全国31省粮食供应链韧性整体水平尚低但提升明显;粮食主产区、粮食主销区和产销平衡区三大区域的粮食供应链韧性均呈稳步增长态势;全国范围内的粮食供应链韧性存在一定差距,而区域间差异是导致差距的主因;三大区域之间及其各自内部的粮食供应链韧性同样存在一定差距;省域之间存在显著的空间集聚特征;政府支持、科技创新、基础设施、经济基础、产业基础、信息化水平、人力资本及其两两交互均对粮食供应链韧性产生正向的促进作用。最后文章从加大科技创新投入力度、加强基础设施建设、筑牢产业发展基础、加大人才培育力度等4个方面提出了进一步增强粮食供应链韧性的政策建议。China’s grain supply chain plays an important role in maintaining national food security,promoting rural revitalization,and building an agricultural powerhouse.Based on data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022,a resilience evaluation index system for the grain supply chain is constructed.The entropy method is used to evaluate the resilience of the grain supply chain,and the kernel density estimation method,Dagum Gini coefficient,and Moran’s I index method are used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the resilience of the grain supply chain.Geographic detectors are used to identify the influencing factors of the resilience of the grain supply chain.The results are as follows.The overall level of resilience in the grain supply chain in 31 provinces across the country is still low,but there has been a significant improvement.The resilience of the grain supply chain in the three major regions of major grain producing areas,major grain selling areas,and balanced production and sales areas has shown a steady growth trend.There is a certain gap in the resilience of the national food supply chain,and regional differences are the main cause of the gap;There is also a certain gap in the resilience of the food supply chain between the three major regions and within each region.There are significant spatial clustering characteristics between provinces.Government support,technological innovation,infrastructure,economic foundation,industrial foundation,information technology level,human capital,and their interactions all have a positive promoting effect on the resilience of the food supply chain.Finally,the article proposes policy recommendations to further enhance the resilience of the food supply chain from four aspects:increasing investment in technological innovation,strengthening infrastructure construction,building a solid foundation for industrial development,and increasing talent cultivation efforts.

关 键 词：粮食供应链韧性 核密度估计 Dagum基尼系数 空间自相关性 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]