技术环境、价值感知对果农商品有机肥多阶段动态采纳的影响——基于Triple-Hurdle模型的分析  

Research on the Impact of Technical Environment,Value Perception and Multi-Stage Dynamic Adoption of Commercial Organic Fertilizer:An Analysis Based on Triple-Hurdle Model

作　　者：李淼 宋保胜[1] LI Miao;SONG Baosheng(School of Economics and Management,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学经济与管理学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《河北农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2024年第6期97-111,共15页Journal of Hebei Agricultural University (SOCIAL SCIENCES)

基　　金：2022年度国家社会科学基金:“传统农区集体经济组织双重治理的实践逻辑、驱动机理与协同优化研究”(编号:22BJY179);2023年度河南省哲学社会科学规划项目:“河南数字乡村支撑农业强省建设路径研究”(编号:2023BJJ043);2024年度河南省重点研发推广项目(科技攻关):“区块链助推河南省农产品质量安全溯源技术突破及实际应用”(编号:242102110345)。

摘　　要：基于河南省南阳市西峡县584份果农调研数据,采用Triple-Hurdle模型和中介检验模型,从多阶段动态采纳视角出发,探究技术环境与价值感知对果农商品有机肥多阶段动态采纳的影响。实证研究发现:目前果农对商品有机肥已表现出较强的采纳意愿和行动,但整体采纳程度仍处于较低水平;技术环境均显著正向影响果农商品有机肥的采纳意愿、采纳行为和采纳程度;价值感知在技术环境和多阶段采纳间的中介作用呈现阶段性差异。其中生态、社会价值感知在采纳意愿和行为中起显著中介作用,而经济价值感知的中介作用则贯穿整个采纳过程;异质性分析揭示,高收入、大规模和加入专业合作社的果农受技术环境的影响更加显著。因此,应从果农多阶段动态采纳的视角出发,优化商品有机肥的技术传播环境,从价值感知出发多措并举提高果农预期收入,发挥优势施肥群体的示范效应,以提升商品有机肥的普及率与应用程度。Based on a survey of 584 fruit growers in Xixia County,Nanyang City,Henan Province,this study employs the Triple-Hurdle model and mediation analysis to explore the impact of the technological environment and value perception on the multi-stage dynamic adoption of commercial organic fertilizers from a multi-phase dynamic adoption perspective.The empirical research reveals that fruit growers currently exhibit a strong willingness to adopt and take action regarding commercial organic fertilizers;however,their overall level of adoption remains relatively low.The technological environment significantly positively influences fruit growers'willingness to adopt,actual adoption behavior,and overall adoption levels concerning commercial organic fertilizers.Furthermore,value perception demonstrates stage-specific mediating effects between the technological environment and multi-stage adoption behaviors.Notably,ecological and social value perceptions play significant mediating roles in both willingness to adopt and actual behavior,while economic value perception serves as a continuous mediator throughout the entire adoption process.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that high-income fruit growers with larger scales or those who are members of professional cooperatives are more significantly influenced by the technological environment.Therefore,it is essential to optimize the technical dissemination environment for commercial organic fertilizers from the perspective of fruit growers'multi-stage dynamic adoption processes.Additionally,measures should be taken to enhance expected income based on economic values while leveraging demonstration effects among advantageous fertilization groups to improve both the popularity and application levels of organic fertilizers.

关 键 词：技术环境 价值感知 果农 商品有机肥 多阶段动态采纳 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]