基于FTA-BN模型的城市道路质量风险关键致因分析  

Analysis of key causal factors of urban road quality risk based on FTA-BN modeling

作　　者：张茜 申建红 王思冉 孟子祥 ZHANG Qian;SHEN Jianhong;WANG Siran;MENG Zixiang(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛266520

出　　处：《山东理工大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第3期1-8,共8页Journal of Shandong University of Technology:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72304161)。

摘　　要：为深入研究城市道路质量风险的影响因素,提出了FTA-BN相结合的分析方法。从人、物、环境3大方面分析城市道路质量风险致因,在系统进行定性分析的基础上采用故障树模型表示风险因素的因果关系,将故障树映射为贝叶斯网络模型,利用Netica软件进行参数学习,通过后验概率推理和重要度推理确定城市道路质量风险关键致因,制定相应的风险管控措施。结果表明,管线渗漏、路面荷载过大、施工扰动、抢工赶工、监理失职对城市道路质量影响较大,为风险发生的关键原因所在。In order to deeply study the influencing factors of urban road quality risk,a combined fault tree analysis(FTA)-Bayesian network(BN)analysis method is proposed.The causes of urban road quality risk are analyzed from three aspects:human,material,and environment.Based on qualitative analysis of the system,the causal relationship of the risk factors is represented by the FTA and subsequently the fault tree is mapped into a BN model.Netica software is used for parameter learning to find out the key causal factors of urban road quality risk through a posteriori probabilistic reasoning and importance reasoning,and to formulate corresponding risk control measures.The results indicate that pipeline leakage,excessive road load,construction disturbance,rush to work,and negligence in supervision have significant impact on the urban road quality,representing key causes of the risk occurrences.

关 键 词：城市道路 质量风险管理 贝叶斯网络 故障树 关键致因 

分 类 号：TU997[建筑科学—市政工程]