基于公开TLE的近三年典型空间事件分析  

Analysis of typical space events in the past three years based on public TLE

作　　者：许凯雯 徐晓月 莫星健 韩保民[1] 雷祥旭 XU Kaiwen;XU Xiaoyue;MO Xingjian;HAN Baomin;LEI Xiangxu(School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255049,China;National Astronomical Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学建筑工程与空间信息学院,山东淄博255049 [2]中国科学院国家天文台,北京100101

出　　处：《山东理工大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第3期51-56,共6页Journal of Shandong University of Technology:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2023MD098);大地测量与地球动力学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLGED2024-3-5);山东省高等学校“青创团队计划”项目(2022KJ224)。

摘　　要：研究各类空间事件对空间环境的影响,对于维持太空可持续发展有一定的意义。基于美国公开的空间目标TLE数据,结合SGP4轨道传播算法,以Cosmos-1408事件、美国星链卫星2次接近中国空间站事件为例,分析了近3年发生的典型空间事件对空间环境的影响。针对前者,基于事件发生后约2.5年的TLE数据,分析了其产生的碎片云规模以及在轨碎片数量变化、轨道高度、在轨寿命等,并以事件碎片导致的国际空间站机动规避事件为例,初步分析了碎片云与在轨航天器的碰撞风险;针对后者,基于两次接近事件相关的TLE,评估了二者的最接近距离,发现最接近距离均小于10 km,有很高的碰撞风险。案例展示了非合作目标接近对在轨航天器带来的碰撞风险。It is of great significance to study the impact of various space events on the space environment for maintaining the sustainable development of space.Based on the TLE data of space targets published by the United States,combined with the SGP4 orbit propagation algorithm,this study analyzes the impact of typical space events on the space environment in the past three years by taking the Cosmos-1408 event and the two near-China Space Station events of the American Starlink satellite as examples.For the for-mer,based on the TLE data of about 2.5 years after the event,the size of the debris cloud generated by the former,the number of on-orbit debris,the orbital height,and the on-orbit lifetime are analyzed.Tak-ing the maneuver avoidance event of the International Space Station caused by the debris of the event as an example,the collision risk between the debris cloud and the on-orbit spacecraft is preliminarily ana-lyzed.For the latter,based on the TLE data from the two proximity events,the closest distance is evalua-ted.It is found that the closest distance is less than 10 km,indicating a high risk of collision.These ca-ses highlight the collision risk of non-cooperative target approaching on-orbit spacecraft.

关 键 词：空间碎片 空间事件 碰撞规避 星链卫星 中国空间站 

分 类 号：P236[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]