利用逆温参数构建环境空气质量统计预报模型  

Constructing Statistical Forecast Model for Ambient Air Quality by Using Temperature Inversion Parameter

作　　者：季浩宇 唐毅 谢南 杨翠香 张云波 惠富斐 刘馨语 JI Hao-yu;TANG Yi;XIE Nan;YANG Cui-xiang;ZHANG Yun-bo;HUI Fu-fei;LIU Xin-yu(Panzhihua Ecological Environment Monitoring Center Station in Sichuan,Panzhihua,Sichuan 617000,China;Meteorological Bureau of Renhe District,Panzhihua,Panzhihua,Sichuan 617000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省攀枝花生态环境监测中心站,四川攀枝花617000 [2]攀枝花市仁和区气象局,四川攀枝花617000

出　　处：《四川环境》2025年第1期9-15,共7页Sichuan Environment

基　　金：攀枝花市指导性科技计划项目(2022ZD-S-10)。

摘　　要：攀枝花市市区低空逆温现象的时间变化规律与城市环境空气质量变化有明显的相关性,利用攀枝花市逆温观测结果和环境空气质量监测数据,以当日20时逆温参数和环境空气污染物小时浓度为自变量,以次日环境空气污染物浓度日均值为因变量,采用多元回归的方法构建了环境空气质量预报模型。对2024年1月至5月的环境空气质量预测结果显示,6项环境空气污染物中预测值和实测值标准平均误差NME最大的CO为24%,最小的O_(3)为9%;相关系数R,SO_(2)最小为0.317,CO为0.686,其他环境空气污染物大于0.7。研究结果表明,由于逆温参数更直接地体现出了在特定区域地形条件下逆温现象对环境空气质量的影响,以其构建环境空气质量预报模型,可以达到较佳的短期预报效果,在数值预报过程中为专家预测提供更准确的参考。The temporal variation pattern of temperature inversion at low altitude in the downtown of Panzhihua is materially correlated with the changes in urban ambient air quality.In this paper,observations of temperature inversion and monitoring data of ambient air quality in Panzhihua was used,with the temperature inversion parameters and hourly concentration of ambient air pollutants at 20:00 of one day taken as independent variables,and the daily average concentration of ambient air pollutants on the next day taken as the dependent variable,to building an ambient air quality forecast model with the multiple regression method.The prediction results of ambient air quality from January to May 2024 showed that among six ambient air pollutants,CO had the highest standard mean error(NME)(24%)between predicted and measured values,and O_(3) had the lowest NME(9%).The minimum correlation coefficient R was 0.317 for SO_(2),0.686 for CO,and greater than 0.7 for other ambient air pollutants.The research results indicated that as the temperature inversion parameters more directly reflected the impact of temperature inversion phenomena on ambient air quality under specific regional terrain conditions,building an ambient air quality forecast model based on them can achieve better short-term forecast results and provide more accurate references for experts in numerical forecasting.

关 键 词：逆温参数 环境空气质量 攀枝花市 统计预报 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X831