气候与土地利用变化背景下对山地高原区大型水库水量水质的影响研究  

Study on Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Quantity and Quality of Large Reservoirs in Mountainous and Highland Areas

作　　者：董徐艳 张火林 李璇 DONG Xu-yan;ZHANG Huo-lin;LI Xuan(Yunnan Society for Enwironmental Sciences,Kunming 650032,China;Yunnan New Century Environmental Protection Science Research Institute,Yunnan New Century Academy of Environmental Protection,Kunming 650032,China;Yunnan Nationalities Minzu University,Kunming 650504,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省环境科学学会,昆明650032 [2]云南新世纪环境保护科学院,昆明650032 [3]云南民族大学,昆明650504

出　　处：《四川环境》2025年第1期24-33,共10页Sichuan Environment

摘　　要：气候变化和土地利用变化是影响水量水质最重要的影响因素。为深入研究山地高原区大型水库水量水质的影响因素,以独木水库流域为例,基于水文、水质和遥感影像数据,利用Spearman秩相关系数法和克里金插值算法分析气候和土地利用变化对下游水量水质影响。结果表明:(1)2018—2023年,独木水库流域降雨量主要集中在夏、秋季节,分别占全年总降雨量的53.56%和23.15%;(2)独木水库流域水质有恶化趋势,超标因子总氮和高锰酸盐指数上升趋势明显,原因在于径流区内农村生活污水、农业种植和散养畜禽养殖等面源污染排放量增加;(3)出入库流量与降雨量、气温之间存在显著正相关(入库流量与降雨量:r=0.831,p<0.01;入库流量与气温:r=0.738,p<0.01);(4)林地、草地与水位、流量具有一定程度的正相关性,对涵养水源具有重要作用。建设用地、耕地、园地、水域及水利设施用地、交通运输用地与水质成负相关,社会经济活动和耕地化肥农药产生的污染物流向水库,水质污染程度加大。Climate changes and land use changes are the most important factors affecting water quantity and quality.To further study the factors affecting water quality and quantity of large reservoirs in mountains and highland areas,the Dumu Reservoir Basin was taken as an example,the Spearman rank correlation coefficient method and the Kriging interpolation algorithm were used in this paper to analyze the impacts of climate and land use change on downstream water quality and quantity based on hydrological,water quality and remote sensing image data.The results showed that:(1)From 2018 to 2023,the rainfall in the Dumu Reservoir Basin was mainly concentrated in summer and autumn,accounting for 53.56%and 23.15%of the total annual rainfall,respectively;(2)the water quality of Dumu Reservoir Basin deteriorated significantly,and the over-the-limit factors,total nitrogen and permanganate index,increased significantly,which was due to the increase of non-point source pollution emissions such as rural domestic sewage,farming and free-range livestock and poultry breeding in the runoff area;(3)there was a significant positive correlation between inflow and inflow flow,rainfall and air temperature(inflow and rainfall:r=0.831,p<0.01;inflow flow and air temperature:r=0.738,p<0.01);and(4)forest land and grassland were positively correlated with water level and flow to specific extent,which played an important role in water conservation.Construction lands,cultivated lands,garden lands,water areas,lands for water conservancy facilities,and transportation lands were negatively correlated with water quality,because the pollutants produced by social and economic activities and fertilizers and pesticides in cultivated land flowed to the reservoir,and the degree of water pollution was increased.

关 键 词：气候变化 土地利用变化 山地高原区 大型水库 水量水质 云南独木水库 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]