基于AHP-EWM改进的船桥碰撞风险模糊综合评价方法研究  

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ship-Bridge Collision Risk Based on AHP-EWM

作　　者：冯玉涛 何杨 上官科峰 廖婧玥 刘长辉 FENG Yutao;HE Yang;SHANGGUAN Kefeng;LIAO Jingyue;LIU Changhui(School of Civil Engineering,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China;China Railway Changjiang Transport Design Group Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 401121,China;School of Traffic&Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;The Eighth Engineering Co.,Ltd.,China Railway Major Bridge Engineering Group,Chongqing 400026,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学土木工程学院,重庆400045 [2]中铁长江交通设计集团有限公司,重庆401121 [3]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [4]中铁大桥局集团第八工程有限公司,重庆400026

出　　处：《桥梁建设》2025年第1期80-87,共8页Bridge Construction

基　　金：重庆市交通科技项目(2017KJ014);重庆市研究生导师团队建设项目(JDDSTD2022009);重庆英才计划(CQYC201903204)。

摘　　要：为更客观、可靠地评价通航桥梁船桥碰撞风险,对国内外近年来214起船桥碰撞事故进行统计分析,识别其主要风险因素,以此构建桥梁船桥碰撞风险评价指标体系。提出一种基于层次分析法(AHP)-熵权法(EWM)改进的船桥碰撞风险模糊综合评价方法,该方法基于桥梁船桥碰撞风险评价指标体系,通过AHP和EWM将风险因素和评价对象转化为评价指标,经一致性分析和标准化处理,获得更为客观的复合权重,基于该权重改进模糊综合评价指标层因素向量,进而得到各评价指标的评价向量,再依据最大隶属度原则获得风险指标的评价结果,以实现通航桥梁船桥碰撞风险等级的可靠评价。以三峡库区万州长江公路大桥为例,对风险评价指标体系和评价方法进行检验。结果表明:评价指标体系与大桥主要风险因素高度一致,指标体系合理且具有普适性;评价结论与大桥的风险特征吻合,评价方法正确可靠。This paper statistically analyzes 214 ship-bridge collision events domestic and foreign,based on which the main risk factors are identified and a ship-bridge collision risk evaluation index system is established.An improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for ship-bridge collision risk based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method(EWM)is proposed,which is established on the basis of the ship-bridge collision risk evaluation index system and uses the AHP and EWM to convert the risk factors and evaluation objectives to be evaluation indicators.With consistency analysis and standardization processing,more objective composite weights are obtained,afterwards,the layer factor vectors of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation indicators are improved to acquire the evaluation vectors of each evaluation indicator.Subsequently,in accordance with the maximum membership principle,the evaluation results of the risk indicators are worked out,thus achieving the reliable evaluation of the ship-bridge collision risk levels of navigable bridges.The risk evaluation index system and evaluation method have been applied to the Wanzhou Changjiang River Highway Bridge in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The analysis demonstrates that the evaluation index system is highly consistent with the main risk factors of the bridge,and the index system is justified and of universality,and the evaluation conclusion is consistent with the risk characteristics of the bridge.

关 键 词：通航桥梁 船撞风险 指标体系 层次分析法 熵权法 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：U447[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]