“双碳”背景下中国能源结构转型的碳减排潜力及宏观经济影响  

Carbon emission reduction potential and macroeconomic impact analysis of China's energy structure transition in the context of‘dual carbon’goals

作　　者：周曙东[1] 雷会妨 葛继红[1] 周力[1] ZHOU Shudong;LEI Huifang;GE Jihong;ZHOU Li(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第12期55-63,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“农产品安全、气候变暖与农业生产转型研究”(批准号:13&ZD160)。

摘　　要：探究低碳能源结构转型方案,对于协调经济发展和碳减排、实现中国“双碳”目标至关重要。该研究设定4种未来可能的能源结构转型情景方案,利用GTAP-E-Power模型模拟能源结构转型所带来的正面和负面影响,探究不同转型情景对碳减排潜力、GDP年均增速、重点行业产出、进出口贸易等的影响。重点针对能源结构调整情景方案选择、4种情景方案给中国碳减排和宏观经济带来的多种影响以及稳定能源与不稳定发电能源结构比例关系等进行讨论。模拟结果显示:在政府现有规划情景方案S1下,中国碳排放量降低10.15%,GDP年均增速下降0.39%;BP世界能源展望新动力情景方案S2下,碳排放量降低9.06%,GDP年均增速下降0.37%;2.0℃温控目标情景方案S3下,碳排放量降低14.17%,GDP年均增速下降0.70%;1.5℃温控目标情景方案S4下,碳排放量降低16.71%,GDP年均增速下降0.90%。4种模拟情景方案下受冲击的产业部门是煤炭、原油、成品油、建筑业、其他服务业、交通运输业、农业和化工行业;受益的产业部门是天然气、水电、核电、光伏发电、风电、轻工业和电子设备制造业。同时分别提出了实现2030年碳“双控”目标的能源结构调整方案以及实现2060年碳中和目标的能源结构调整方案。并针对不稳定发电能源比重增大后可能带来的一系列问题提出政策建议。合理调节稳定能源与不稳定发电能源的比例关系;加大对高速公路服务区电动汽车充电桩建设;加强蓄电池回收处理等。Exploring low-carbon energy structure transition scenarios is crucial for reconciling economic development and carbon emission reduction and achieving China's‘dual carbon’goals.This paper sets forth four possible scenarios for future energy mix transi-tions and uses the GTAP-E-Power model to simulate the positive and negative impacts of these transitions.The study explores the im-pacts of different transition scenarios on carbon emission reduction potential,the average annual GDP growth rate,the outputs of key in-dustries,and import/export trade,among other factors.This paper focuses on the selection of energy structure adjustment scenarios,the various impacts of the four scenarios on China's carbon emission reduction and macroeconomics,and the proportion of stable versus non-stable energy structures and their treatment.The simulation results show that under the current government planning scenario(S1),China's carbon emissions will be reduced by 10.15%,and the average annual GDP growth rate will decrease by 0.39%.Under the BP World Energy Outlook new power scenario(S2),carbon emissions will be reduced by 9.06%,and the average annual GDP growth rate will decrease by 0.37%.Under the 2.0℃temperature control target scenario(S3),carbon emissions will be reduced by 14.17%,and the average annual GDP growth will decrease by 0.70%.Under the 1.5℃temperature control target scenario(S4),carbon emissions will be reduced by 16.71%,and the average annual GDP growth will decrease by 0.90%.Under the four simulated scenarios,the affected in-dustrial sectors are coal,crude oil,refined oil products,construction,other categories of the service industry,transport,agriculture,and chemicals.The sectors benefiting from these transitions include natural gas,hydropower,nuclear power,photovoltaic power generation,wind power,light industry,and electronic equipment manufacturing.This study proposes an energy structure adjustment plan to achieve the 2030 carbon‘dual control’targets and another to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality

关 键 词：“双碳” 能源结构转型 经济增长 碳减排潜力 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]