政策组合强度之于政策效能:“愈强愈善”抑或“过犹不及”?  

Impact of policy mix intensity on policy effectiveness:‘the greater the better’or‘the greater the worse’?

作　　者：张晓杰[1] 刘晓瑜 ZHANG Xiaojie;LIU Xiaoyu(School of Humanities and Law,Northeastern University,Shenyang Liaoning 110169,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学文法学院,辽宁沈阳110169

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第12期85-97,共13页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国环境政策组合对生态环境治理水平的影响机制与优化策略研究”(批准号:21BZZ062)。

摘　　要：政策组合强度作为政策组合设计的重要特征,关乎政策体系的系统性与可行性,影响政策效能的有效发挥。为探究政策组合强度如何影响政策效能,该研究在利用政策活动指数测算中国大气污染防治政策组合强度的基础上,采用2010—2022年31个省份的面板数据进行实证分析。结果表明:政策组合强度对政策效能的影响并非愈强愈善,而是呈现倒“U”形非线性关系,即强度适中的政策组合有助于政策效能的充分释放。进一步分析显示,政策组合强度对政策效能的影响呈现明显区域异质性,在东部和中部地区倒“U”形效果较为明显,在西部地区则呈现正向线性相关关系;相较行政指令型政策组合强度,政策效能对市场经济型政策组合强度的变化更为敏感。为后续打出长短结合、破立并举、精准发力的政策组合拳,建议政策组合强度设计应秉持适度和因地制宜的原则,并坚持不同类型政策组合强度的差异化布局。该研究为设计“适度”而非“过度”的政策组合,促进政策从“观念形态”向“现实效果”的有效转化提供了重要借鉴。The intensity of policy mix,as an important feature of policy mix design,is related to the systematization and feasibility of the policy system and affects policy performance.This study explored how the intensity of policy mix affects policy effectiveness by cal⁃culating the intensity of China's air pollution control policy mix through the Index of Policy Activity and conducting an empirical analy⁃sis using panel data from 31 provinces from 2010 to 2022.The findings indicated that greater policy mix intensity did not always lead to better policy effectiveness;there was an inverted U-shaped relationship between policy mix intensity and policy effectiveness.A policy mix with moderate intensity was conducive to the full release of policy effectiveness.Further analysis showed that the impact of policy mix intensity on policy effectiveness exhibited pronounced regional heterogeneity.An inverted U-shaped effect was found in the eastern and central regions,while a significantly positive linear correlation was identified in the western region.Compared with the intensity of administrative directive policy mix,policy effectiveness was more sensitive to changes in the intensity of market-based policy mix at the present stage.To develop a well-targeted policy mix incorporating both short-term and long-term incentives and combining the abolish⁃ment of the outdated tools with the establishment of new ones,it is suggested that the design of policy mix intensity should adhere to the principles of moderation and adaptation to local conditions.Additionally,a differential layout of different types of policy mix intensity should be employed.This study provides important implications for designing a‘moderate’rather than‘excessive’policy mix and for promoting the effective transformation of policy from‘idea’to‘reality’.

关 键 词：政策组合 政策组合强度 政策效能 大气污染防治政策 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学] X321[政治法律—中外政治制度]