中国水、能源与粮食空间错位演变与优化路径  

Spatial dislocation evolution of China's water,energy,and food and its optimization pathways

作　　者：马楠[1] 陈若雪 MA Nan;CHEN Ruoxue(School of Economics,South-Central Minzu University,Wuhan Hubei 430074,China;School of Geographic Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200062

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第12期132-140,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“滇桂黔生产性服务业与山地农业融合发展动力机制与对策研究”(批准号:23BMZ052)。

摘　　要：水、能源与粮食的协调发展是经济、社会和生态可持续发展的重要支撑,但是受资源禀赋、经济发展等因素的影响,中国水、能源与粮食的空间分布不均衡现象愈加明显,逐渐成为限制彼此发展的障碍。该研究运用标准差椭圆、空间错位指数刻画了中国水、能源与粮食的空间错位态势及其演变趋势,并构建了高铁交通、市场互通等4类空间权重矩阵,采用空间杜宾模型针对性地分析了空间错位的优化路径。研究结果表明:(1)2005—2020年中国水、能源与粮食三者的空间错位呈现两阶段倒“U”形。其中,2005—2015年三者的空间错位持续加剧,2015—2020年三者的空间错位则呈现转折态势;2020年水、能源与粮食的资源丰裕度重心分别位于湖北省、山西省、山东省。(2)从空间分布格局来看,以“胡焕庸线”为界,中国水、能源与粮食的空间错位状态呈现明显“东南强、西北弱”的特征;从空间错位程度来看,2005—2020年高错位区、中错位区和低错位区所含省份的数量呈“三角形—梯形—纺锤形”的演变态势。(3)中国水、能源与粮食三者空间错位的主要影响因素为以气候条件、降雨量等为代表的自然系统因素以及以人才要素、产业结构等为代表的经济社会系统因素,其通过空间邻接、交通互联、市场互通和产业互补等路径影响水、能源与粮食的空间错位状态。基于此,建议以铁路交通网络建设、市场开放与一体化和产业互补性发展等为抓手,有效提升资源利用水平,进一步推动信息技术等资源跨区协同共享,深化区际分工合作促进产业转型,进而缓解中国水、能源与粮食空间错位。The harmonious development of water,energy,and food is a crucial pillar supporting the sustainable development of the economy,society,and ecology.However,influenced by factors such as resource endowment and economic development,the uneven spa-tial distribution of water,energy,and food in China has become increasingly pronounced,gradually emerging as a barrier that constrains their respective development.This study used the standard deviation ellipse and the spatial dislocation index to comprehensively char-acterize the spatial dislocation situation of water,energy,and food in China and its evolutionary trend.Furthermore,four types of spatial weight matrices were constructed,including high-speed rail transportation and market interconnectivity.The spatial Durbin model was then used to analyze the optimization paths of spatial dislocation.The research results indicated that:①From 2005 to 2020,the spatial dislocation of water,energy,and food in China exhibited a two-phase inverted-U shaped pattern.From 2005 to 2015,the spatial disloca-tion intensified continuously,whereas from 2015 to 2020,this trend reached a turning point.In 2020,the resource abundance centers of water,energy,and food in China were located in Hubei Province,Shanxi Province,and Shandong Province,respectively.②From the perspective of spatial distribution patterns,demarcated by the Heihe-Tengchong Line,the spatial dislocation of water,energy,and food exhibited a distinct characteristic of being‘strong in the southeast,weak in the northwest.’From the perspective of spatial dislocation degree,from 2005 to 2020,the number of provinces categorized into high,medium,and low dislocation areas evolved from a‘triangu-lar’to a‘trapezoidal’and finally to a‘spindle’shape.③The main factors influencing the spatial distribution of water,energy,and food in China are natural system factors,such as climate conditions and rainfall,and economic and social system factors,such as talent and industrial structure.These factors influenced the state of s

关 键 词：水 能源 粮食 空间错位 优化路径 

分 类 号：F329.9[经济管理—产业经济]