数字经济对经济高质量发展的非线性影响——基于空间不对等溢出视角  

Non⁃linear impact of the digital economy on high⁃quality economic development:a perspective based on spatially unequal spillovers

作　　者：李田田 张源野 李黎 叶阿忠 LI Tiantian;ZHANG Yuanye;LI Li;YE Azhong(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350116,China;Economic High-quality Development Research Center,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350116,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350116 [2]福州大学经济高质量发展研究中心,福建福州350116

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第12期193-204,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“半参数门限空间滞后模型理论研究及其应用”(批准号:72073030)。

摘　　要：在高质量发展战略的背景下,数字经济如何影响经济高质量发展成为学术界的热点问题。该研究从非线性视角出发,基于长江经济带108个城市的面板数据,采用半参数门限空间滞后模型实证考察了数字经济对城市经济高质量发展的非线性影响和空间溢出的不对等程度。结果表明:(1)数字经济对经济高质量发展的促进作用具有先“边际效应”递减后“边际效应”递增的非线性特征。(2)邻近城市的空间溢出效应显著促进了本地区经济高质量发展,但在不同数字经济水平下空间溢出具有明显的不对等性,数字经济发达的中心城市借助回波效应能够获得更多的空间溢出效应。(3)数字经济对不同城市群的经济高质量发展并未呈现一致的作用效果,其中:数字经济对成渝城市群经济高质量发展的影响呈现“边际效应”递减和“边际效应”递增交替变化的非线性特征;对长江中游城市群的影响呈现先“边际效应”递减后“边际效应”递增的非线性特征;对长三角城市群的影响呈现“边际效应”递增的非线性特征。(4)空间溢出的不对等程度存在明显的城市群异质性,其中成渝城市群数字经济中心城市和外围城市获取空间溢出效应的能力差异最大,长江中游城市群的能力差异次之,而长三角城市群的能力差异最小。该研究为实现长江经济带经济高质量发展提出以下政策建议:(1)全面推动长江经济带数字化发展,突破数字经济“边际效应”拐点。(2)发挥数字经济中心城市辐射效应,强势带动长江经济带整体高质量发展。(3)充分认识城市群自身发展特征,制定差异化数字经济发展战略。In the context of the high-quality development strategy,the way in which the digital economy empowers high-quality eco-nomic development has become a hot topic in academia.From a non-linear perspective,this study empirically examined the non-linear impact of the digital economy on urban high-quality economic development and the degree of spatial spillover inequality.The analysis was based on panel data from 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,using a semi-parametric threshold spatial lagged model.The results showed that:①The promotion effect of the digital economy on high-quality economic development had a non-linear charac-teristic,with an initially decreasing‘marginal effect’followed by an increasing one.②The spatial spillover effect from neighboring cit-ies significantly promoted local high-quality economic development.However,the spatial spillover resulted from varying levels of digital economic develpment exhibited pronounced inequality.Central cities with advanced digital economic development led to more signifi-cant spatial spillover effects,reinforced by the echo effect.③The impact of the digital economy on high-quality economic development varied across different urban agglomerations.The Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration showed a non-linear characteristic of alter-nating decreasing and increasing‘marginal effects.’The middle reaches of the Yangtze River exhibited an initially decreasing‘margin-al effect,’followed by an increasing one.However,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration only showed an increasing‘marginal effect.’④The degree of spatial spillover inequality exhibited significant heterogeneity among urban agglomerations,in which the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration showed the largest disparity between central and peripheral cities in their capacity to harness spatial spillover effects.This was followed by the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,while the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomera-tion demonstrated the smallest variation.Based on these findi

关 键 词：长江经济带 数字经济 经济高质量发展 非线性影响 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]