展览业与产业链供应链现代化的耦合协调及驱动因素  

Research on coupling coordination and driving factors between exhibition industry and modernization of industrial chain and supply chain

作　　者：王宁 蔡卫民[1] WANG Ning;CAI Weimin(School of Tourism,Hunan Normal University,Changsha,Hunan 410081,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学旅游学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《内江师范学院学报》2025年第2期76-86,共11页Journal of Neijiang Normal University

基　　金：湖南省社会科学基金项目(22JD014)。

摘　　要：构建展览业与产业链供应链现代化的评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型测算两系统的耦合协调发展水平,进一步运用核密度估计、ArcGIS自然断点法分析其时空特征,并结合地理探测器探索其驱动因素.结果表明:2012-2021年60个城市会展业综合发展水平与产业链供应链现代化水平总体呈上升趋势;耦合协调发展水平总体不高,但发展水平有所上升,大部分城市处于中度和严重失衡状态;核密度曲线表现为单峰,右拖尾现象明显,极化特征显著;高水平城市多分布在城市群和沿海地区,西部地区协调较差,空间差异显著.会展业与产业链供应链现代化的耦合协调水平受多因素影响,核心驱动力主要是科技支出、展会数量、各行业TOP3展会项目数量.The exhibition industry can promote the joint development of various industries,and the modernization of industrial chain and supply chain as a new research direction has attracted the attention of many scholars.Clarifying the relationship between the two will make new exploration for the realization of Chinese-style modernization.This paper taking 60 cities in China as research objects,constructs an evaluation index system for the exhibition industry and modernization of industrial chain and supply chain.Panel data from 2012 to 2021 are selected,and the coupling coordination degree model is used to estimate the level of coupling and coordination development level of exhibition industry and industrial chain and supply chain modernization,Kernel density estimation and ArcGIS were used to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics,and explores its driving factors by combining geographical detectors.The results show that the comprehensive development level of the exhibition industry and the modernization of the industrial chain and supply chain in 60 cities from 2012 to 2021 shows a rising trend on the whole;The level of coupling and coordination development is not high on the whole,but it is improved in the level,most of the cities are in the state of moderate and serious imbalance;The nuclear density curve shows a single peak,the right tailing phenomenon is obvious,and the polarization characteristics are obvious.The cities with higher level are mostly distributed in urban agglomerations and coastal areas,while the western region is poorly developed and has a significant spatial difference.The coupling coordination level between the exhibition industry and the modernization of the industrial chain and supply chain is influenced by multiple factors,and the core driving force is mainly science and technology expenditure,the number of exhibitions,and the number of TOP3 exhibition projects in various industries.

关 键 词：展览业 产业链供应链现代化 耦合协调 驱动因子 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]