常州市夏季高温变化特征及异常年环流形势分析  

Analysis on Characteristics of Summer High Temperature Variation and Circulation Anomalies in Changzhou

作　　者：夏束薇 冯梦茹 XIA Shuwei;FENG Mengru(Changzhou Meteorological Bureau,Changzhou 213000 China;Jintan Meteorological Bureau,Changzhou 213200 China)

机构地区：[1]常州市气象局,江苏常州213000 [2]金坛区气象局,江苏常州213200

出　　处：《河南科技》2025年第2期97-100,共4页Henan Science and Technology

基　　金：常州市气象局科研项目(2306)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究常州市高温天气的变化特征和大气环流与热带海温对其夏季高温的影响,为极端高温天气的提前预测提供参考。【方法】采用常规统计、相关和合成方法进行分析。【结果】结果表明:常州市高温日数与年极端最高气温总体上呈现先下降后上升的变化特征,并于20世纪80年代后期转为明显上升趋势;高温天气主要受显著的异常高压控制,西太平洋副热带高压西伸北抬,面积和强度指数显著加强。在副高的控制下,地面空气温度升高,下沉气流加强,对流减弱;东亚大槽变浅,不利于冷空气的向南爆发;高温日数与东部型ENSO指数呈负相关,与西太平洋暖池的面积与强度指数呈现显著的正相关。【结论】研究结果对当地极端高温天气的提前预测有一定的指导意义。[Purposes]Taking Changzhou City as an example,the characteristics of high temperature variation in Changzhou and the influences of atmospheric circulation and tropical sea surface temperature were analyzed to provide reference for the advance prediction of extreme high temperature weather.[Methods]Conventional statistical,correlation and synthesis methods were used for analysis.[Findings]The results showed that:the number of high temperature days and annual extreme maximum temperature in Changzhou decrease firstly and then increase,and turn to an obvious upward trend in the late 1980s.The high temperature weather is mainly controlled by significant anomalous high pressure.The western Pacific subtropical high extends to the west and north,with significant strengthening of area and intensity index.Under the control of the western Pacific subtropical high,the surface air temperature increases,the downward flow strengthens and the convection weakens.The East Asian trough weakens,which is not conducive to the outbreak of cold air to the south.In addition,the number of high temperature days has a negative correlation with the eastern ENSO index,and a significant positive correlation with the area and intensity index of the western Pacific warm pool.[Conclusions]The results of this study have certain guiding significance for the advance prediction of local extreme hot weather.

关 键 词：常州市 高温日数 西太平洋副热带高压 热带海温 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]