2020年7月7日南昌市强降水过程漏报分析  

Analysis of Missing-forecast of Heavy Rainfall Process in Nanchang

作　　者：唐传师 雷星宇 钟兰頔 苏校平 TANG Chuanshi;LEI Xingyu;ZHONG Landi;SU Xiaoping(Nanchang Meteorological Bureau,Nanchang 330038,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌市气象局,江西南昌330038

出　　处：《河南科技》2025年第2期101-104,共4页Henan Science and Technology

基　　金：2022年江西省重点研发计划“揭榜挂帅”项目(20223BBG71079);2021年江西省气象局预报员专项(JX2021Y04)。

摘　　要：【目的】对2020年7月7日南昌市各级主观预报和客观预报均出现漏报的一次大范围强降水过程进行分析,查明此次过程产生的原因。【方法】利用各类气象资料和数值预报产品等资料对此次过程的环流背景、不稳定条件、水汽条件、动力条件等进行分析和检验。【结果】此次强降水过程是发生在副高北抬转南落过程中,槽后的偏北气流与副高北侧强盛西南暖湿气流对峙的天气背景下的一次强降水天气过程。强盛西南暖湿气流提供了丰富的水汽,近地面层冷空气的楔入及能量锋区南压配合中高空高能区形成不稳定层结提供了动力条件和大量的不稳定能量。【结论】数值预报没有预报出7月7日副高由北抬转为南退转折,对槽后偏北气流南压的强度、速度和南压的位置的预报存在较大的偏差,同时数值预报降水产品指导性不强,是导致此次强降水过程漏报的主要原因。[Purposes]This paper aims to analyze the large-scale heavy rain process that was missed by all levels of subjective and objective forecasts in Nanchang City on July 7,2020,and understand the causes of this process.[Methods]The circulation background,unstable conditions,water vapor condi⁃tions and dynamic conditions of the process were analyzed and tested by using various meteorological data and numerical forecast products.[Findings]This heavy precipitation process occurred in the pro⁃cess of the subtropical high lifting to the north and falling to the south.The northerly air flow behind the trough confronted the strong southwest warm and humid air flow to the north of the subtropical high.The strong southwest warm and humid air flow provided rich water vapor.The wedging of cold air near the surface layer and the formation of unstable stratification between the southern pressure of the energy front and the high energy region in the middle and high altitude provide dynamic conditions and a large amount of unstable energy.[Conclusions]The numerical forecast failed to predict the turning point of the subtropical high from north to south on July 7,and there were large deviations in the forecast of the strength and velocity of the southerly pressure of the northerly airflow behind the trough and the position of the southerly pressure,as well as the poor guidance of the numerical forecast precipitation products,which were the main reasons for the missing report of the heavy precipitation process.

关 键 词：强降水 诊断分析 检验评估 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]