珠江口磨刀门水道咸潮入侵下区域供水风险评估与预警要素研究  

Research on risk assessment and early warning elements of regional water supply under saltwater intrusion in Modaomen waterway at the Pearl River Estuary

作　　者：朱瑞 杨芳 万东辉 邹华志 林中源 赵铜铁钢 王凌河 王强 李旭东 ZHU Rui;YANG Fang;WAN DongHui;ZOU HuaZhi;LIN ZhongYuan;ZHAO TongTieGang;WANG LingHe;WANG Qiang;LI XuDong(Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Pearl River Water Resources Commission,Guangzhou 510611,China;Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuary Regulation and Protection,Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China;Center of Water Resources and Environment,Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广州510611 [2]水利部珠江河口治理与保护重点实验室,广州510611 [3]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广州510275

出　　处：《中国科学:技术科学》2025年第2期339-358,共20页Scientia Sinica(Technologica)

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(编号:2023-01);水利部重大科技项目(编号:SKS-2022005)资助。

摘　　要：河口海岸地区作为全球人口与经济社会发展的重心,其枯水季节受上游径流减弱、河口潮汐等作用,极易发生咸潮入侵现象,对区域供水安全和社会稳定造成了显著的影响.本文以粤港澳大湾区所处珠江口磨刀门水道为例,建立一个耦合咸潮入侵模拟、本地水库抢蓄淡水调度和区域供水安全指数(SI)的风险综合评估模型,结合珠海-澳门供水系统现状(2023年)供水能力和1979~2019年长时间序列天然径流资料,定量评估不同程度咸潮入侵下的区域供水风险,从上游径流、主要取水口取淡概率、本地水库群蓄满率三个方面探究供水风险预警等级及相应阈值.结果表明,受咸潮入侵严重影响,珠海本地水库群蓄水量会在1989,1998,2003,2004和2005年枯水季出现大幅下降,SI值持续多天低于0.2,面临特别重大供水风险.根据SI指数的历史频次分析,划分磨刀门水道咸潮风险预警等级为蓝色、黄色、橙色、红色4级,明确以上游梧州站和石角站合计流量(2500 m^(3)/s)、主要取水口平均取淡概率(0.6/0.3/0.1)和本地水库群平均蓄满率(0.8/0.5/0.2)作为预警指示指标;当主要取水口平均取淡概率低于0.1且本地水库群平均蓄满率低于0.2时,对应特别重大供水风险和红色预警等级.未来可考虑将主要取水口取淡概率和本地水库群蓄满率作为关键控制性指标,在实际监测、实时评估和动态调整等阶段为应对咸潮入侵和保障区域供水安全提供科学决策依据.As the center of gravity of global population and economic and social development,estuary coastal areas are highly susceptible to saltwater intrusion phenomena during the dry season due to the weakening of upstream runoff and estuary tides,causing significant impacts on regional water supply security and social stability.In this study,an integrated risk assessment model coupling the simulation of saltwater intrusion,the local reservoir emergency storage dispatch,and the regional water supply security index(SI)is developed using the Modaomen waterway of the Pearl River Estuary,where Guangdong,Hong Kong,and Macao are located,as an example.We quantitatively assessed the regional water supply risk under different degrees of saltwater intrusion by combining the current(2023)water supply capacity of the Zhuhai-Macao water supply system and the long-time series natural runoff data from 1979 to 2019,and explored the water supply risk warning levels and corresponding thresholds in terms of upstream runoff,the probability of water withdrawals from major intakes,and the fullness of the local reservoirs.The results show that,due to the serious impact of the saltwater intrusion,the water storage of the local reservoirs in Zhuhai will experience a significant drop in the dry seasons of 1989,1998,2003,2004,and 2005,with the SI value continuing to be below 0.2 for a number of days,and thus face a particularly significant water supply risk.Based on the historical frequency of the SI,the risk warning level of the salty tide in the Modaomen waterway is classified as 4 levels:blue,yellow,orange,and red.The combined flow rate(2500 m3/s)of the upstream Wuzhou and Shijiao stations,the average chance of water withdrawals from the major intakes(0.6/0.3/0.1),and the average fullness rate of the local reservoirs(0.8/0.5/0.2)are taken as the warning indicators.When the average chance of water withdrawals from the major intakes is less than 0.1 and the average fullness rate of the local reservoirs is less than 0.2,it corresponds to a particu

关 键 词：咸潮入侵 盐度预测 供水安全 预警等级 

分 类 号：TV6[水利工程—水利水电工程]