Adaptive Early Warning Method of Cascading Failures Caused by Coordinated Cyber-Attacks  

作　　者：Yufei Wang June Li Jian Qiu Yangrong Chen 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Aerospace Information Security and Trusted Computing,Ministry of Education,School of Cyber Science and Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei,430072,China [2]China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing,102209,China [3]Electric Power Planning&Engineering Institute,Beijing 100120,China

出　　处：《CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems》2025年第1期406-423,共18页中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文)

基　　金：supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51977155).

摘　　要：In order to accurately receive early warning of the cascading failures caused by coordinated cyber-attacks(CFCC)in grid cyber-physical systems(GCPS),an adaptive early warning method of CFCC is proposed.First,the evolutionary mechanism of CFCC is analyzed from the attackers'view,the CFCC mathematical model is established,and the transition processes of GCPS running states under the influence of CFCC staged failures are discussed.Then,the mathematical model of the adaptive early warning method is established.Further,the mathematical model of the adaptive early warning method is mapped as an adaptive control process with tolerating staged failures damage,and the solving process is presented to infer the CFCC and its next evolution trend.A decision-making idea for the optimal active defense scheme is proposed considering the costs and gains of various defense measures.Finally,to verify the effectiveness of the adaptive early warning method,the warning and defense processes of a typical CFCC are simulated in a GCPS experimental system based on CEPRI-36 BUS.

关 键 词：Adaptive control theory cascading failures coordinated cyber-attacks early warning grid cyber-physical systems 

分 类 号：TP309.2[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构] TP273[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]