拜登政府介入日俄岛屿争端的逻辑与前景探析  

An Analysis of the Logic and Prospects of the Biden Administration's Involvement in the Island Dispute between Japan and Russia

作　　者：吕平[1] 甘雨禾 Lv Ping;Gan Yuhe

机构地区：[1]大连外国语大学国际关系学院,大连116044

出　　处：《日本研究》2024年第3期87-96,共10页Japan Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年基金项目“冷战后东北亚海洋领土争端的危机管控机制研究”(项目编号:20YJCGJW007)。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突爆发后,拜登政府以“楔子战略”为指导,主动加强在日俄岛屿争端中对日支持立场,着力引导日本参与对俄制裁、围堵,塑造并影响日俄、中俄关系,实现阻断日俄经济合作、分化中俄关系、牵制俄罗斯在北极地区的安全部署三重目标。然而,拜登政府的“楔子战略”主观性过强,难以主导中国、俄罗斯乃至日本的区域政策,且其对日支持姿态缺乏必要行动支持。因此,日俄合作至今未能全面脱钩,中俄合作关系将在未来一段时期内呈上升态势,拜登政府“楔子战略”的实施难见显著成效。After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,the Biden administration,guided by the"Wedge Strategy",proactively strengthened its supportive stance towards Japan in the South Kuril Islands,and focused on steering Japan towards participating in the sanctions against Russia.In this way,the Biden administration aims to achieve a triple objective:first,shaping and influencing Japan-Russia and Sino-Russian relations,and realizing the blockage of Japan-Russia economic cooperation;second,dividing Sino-Russian relations;third,containing Russia's security deployment in the Arctic.However,the excessive subjectivity of the Biden administration's Wedge Strategy makes it difficult to lead regional policies of China,Russia,and even Japan,and its supportive stance towards Japan lacks necessary action support.Therefore,Japan-Russia cooperation has not been completely decoupled,and Sino-Russian cooperation will be on the rise during the coming period,making the implementation of the Biden administration's wedge strategy difficult to achieve significant results.

关 键 词：拜登政府 日俄岛屿争端 “楔子战略” 中俄关系 

分 类 号：D83[政治法律—政治学] D87[政治法律—外交学]