极端天气下的新能源电力系统电力电量平衡体系  

Electric Power and Energy Balancing System for Power System with Renewable Energy in Extreme Weather

作　　者：叶林[1] 裴铭 杨建宾 宋旭日 罗雅迪 张振宇 於益军 汤涌 YE Lin;PEI Ming;YANG Jianbin;SONG Xuri;LUO Yadi;ZHANG Zhenyu;YU Yijun;TANG Yong(College of Information and Electrical Engineering,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;National Key Laboratory of Grid Security(China Electric Power Research Institute),Beijing 100192,China;National Power Dispatching and Control Center,State Grid Corporation of China,Beijing 100031,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院,北京市100083 [2]电网安全全国重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院有限公司),北京市100192 [3]国家电网有限公司国家电力调度控制中心,北京市100031

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2025年第4期2-18,共17页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金新型电力系统联合基金重点项目(U22B20117);国家电网有限公司总部科技项目(5108-202455042A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：极端天气频发给新能源电力系统的电力电量平衡带来了巨大挑战,极端天气引发的系统安全风险逐渐加剧。从极端天气对新能源电力系统源-网-荷的影响出发,文中在资源-气象-环境-电网多源数据融合、新能源资源评估、极端天气下新能源功率预测、电力平衡、电量平衡以及优化调度等方面对极端天气下电力电量平衡体系进行了分析讨论。首先,揭示了资源-气象-环境-电网数据在时间-空间上的交互影响机理,提出极端天气下小样本扩充方法,建立极端天气下新能源资源评估模型;基于此,构建极端天气下多时间尺度源-荷组合预测理论体系,提出预测误差矢量评价方法,为新能源电力系统电力电量平衡优化提供决策支撑;在预测的基础上,以频率安全为主要因素提出了极端天气下电力系统电力平衡的方法和策略,剖析了不同时间尺度下极端天气事件对电量平衡的影响,从发电侧、电网侧和负荷侧等多角度保障电量平衡,并提出了极端天气下新能源电力系统优化调度框架。最后,展望了未来极端天气下新能源电力系统在保障电力电量平衡方面应研究的方向。Frequent extreme weather events pose significant challenges to the balance of electric power and energy in the renewable energy power system.The system security risks caused by extreme weather are gradually increasing.Starting from the impact of extreme weather on the source-grid-load aspects of the power system with renewable energy,this paper analyzes and discusses the electric power and energy balancing system in extreme weather.It covers multi-source data integration of resources,meteorology,environment,and power grids,renewable energy resource assessment,and power prediction of renewable energy,electric power balance,energy balance,and optimal scheduling in extreme weather.First,this paper reveals the interaction influence mechanisms of data of resource,meteorology,environment and power grid in time and space,proposes a method for expanding small samples in extreme weather,and establishes a model for assessing renewable energy resources in extreme weather.Based on this,this paper establishes a theoretical system of multi-timescale source-load combined prediction in extreme weather and proposes a vectorbased evaluation method of prediction errors,to provide decision support for the optimization of electric power and energy balance of the power system with renewable energy.Based on prediction,taking frequency security as the main factor,this paper proposes methods and strategies for electric power balance in extreme weather and analyzes the influences of extreme weather events on the energy balance at different timescales,to ensure energy balance from multiple perspectives,including the generation side,power grid side and load side.The optimal dispatching framework for the renewable energy power system in extreme weather is proposed.Finally,this paper prospects the research topics for the power system with renewable energy in ensuring the balance of electric power and energy in extreme weather.

关 键 词：极端天气 新能源有功功率预测 电力平衡 电量平衡 新能源消纳 主动控制 优化调度 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]