整体还原论视角下的输电线路复合灾害故障率评估——(一)框架设计  

Evaluation of Compound-disaster Failure Rate for Transmission Lines from Perspective of Whole Reductionism Thinking——Part One Framework Design

作　　者：薛禹胜 常康 郁琛 薛峰 XUE Yusheng;CHANG Kang;YU Chen;XUE Feng(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute(NARI Group Corporation),Nanjing 211106,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]国网电力科学研究院有限公司(南瑞集团有限公司),江苏省南京市211106 [2]哈尔滨工业大学电气工程及自动化学院,黑龙江省哈尔滨市150001

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2025年第4期19-31,共13页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20232026);国网电力科学研究院有限公司科技项目(极端自然灾害下融合电网安全信息与输变电设备状态的应急决策关键技术研究)。

摘　　要：全球变暖趋势增加了复合灾害发生的可能性。复合灾害下输电线路故障率的准确评估是电网风险预警和应急决策的量化基础。按灾种独立事件累积故障率的方法,既不能反映灾害演化的时变性,又不能反映灾种间相互影响的耦合特征,在复合灾害场景下难以客观反映输电线路面临的故障风险。整体还原论(WRT)融合了整体论的全局观与还原论的机理观,是研究复杂性问题的新范式。文中从复合灾害的时变特征与耦合特征出发分析其复杂性根源,从灾种孤立分析和复合灾害分析的角度回顾了自然灾害下输电线路故障率评估技术现状及面临的问题,提出了基于WRT的灾害综合分析法的研究思路,建立了“离线按分类特征优化、在线按实际灾情执行”的评估框架,探讨了灾害综合分析法的若干关键技术。The global warming trend has increased the occurring probability of compound disasters.Accurate evaluation of the failure rate for transmission lines under compound disasters is the quantitative basis for the power grid risk warning and emergency decision-making.The method of cumulative failure rate based on independent events of disaster types cannot reflect the timevarying nature of disaster evolution or the coupling characteristics of mutual influence between disaster types.It is difficult to objectively reflect the fault risk faced by transmission lines in the compound disaster scenarios.Whole reductionism thinking(WRT)integrates the global view of holism with the mechanistic view of reductionism,and it is a new paradigm for studying complexity problems.The complexity root of compound disasters is analyzed from the perspective of time-varying and coupling characteristics.From the perspective of disaster-type independent analysis and compound-disaster analysis,the current status and problems faced by evaluation technologies of the failure rate for transmission lines under natural disasters are reviewed.A research approach for the WRT-based comprehensive disaster analysis method is then proposed,and an evaluation framework of“offline optimization based on classification features,and online execution based on actual disaster situations”is established.Several key technologies of comprehensive disaster analysis method are finally discussed.

关 键 词：复合灾害 故障率 整体还原论 输电线路 自适应决策优化 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]