整体还原论视角下的输电线路复合灾害故障率评估——(二)算法及应用  

Evaluation of Compound-disaster Failure Rate for Transmission Lines from Perspective of Whole Reductionism Thinking——Part Two Algorithm and Application

作　　者：常康 薛禹胜 郁琛 薛峰 CHANG Kang;XUE Yusheng;YU Chen;XUE Feng(School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China;State Grid Electric Power Research Institute(NARI Group Corporation),Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学电气工程及自动化学院,黑龙江省哈尔滨市150001 [2]国网电力科学研究院有限公司(南瑞集团有限公司),江苏省南京市211106

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2025年第4期32-41,共10页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20232026);国网电力科学研究院有限公司科技项目(极端自然灾害下融合电网安全信息与输变电设备状态的应急决策关键技术研究)。

摘　　要：针对灾种孤立分析难以适应电网复杂外部环境时变性与耦合性的问题,系列论文的首篇建立了基于整体还原论(WRT)的灾害综合分析框架。作为续篇,文中提出了一种基于灾害综合分析的输电线路故障率在线评估算法。首先,根据气象灾害态势时间序列的粗粒化特征,对复合灾害状态和趋势进行分类编码。其次,通过划分复合灾害区、复合地理特征区、复合灾害与地理特征重叠区,提出线路段粒度自适应划分方法。然后,根据“离线按分类特征优化、在线按实际灾情执行”的机制,评估每类复合灾害态势下每个线路段的故障率,再将复合灾害的致灾过程看作一个整体,聚合线路段故障率得到每条线路的故障率时间序列。最后,以中国某省实际电网运行数据为例,验证了所提方法的有效性。In response to the problem that the disaster-type independent analysis is difficult to adapt to the time-varying and coupling characteristics of the complex external environment of the power grid,the first paper in the series established a comprehensive disaster analysis framework based on whole reductionism thinking(WRT).As a sequel,an online evaluation algorithm of failure rate for transmission lines based on comprehensive disaster analysis is proposed.Firstly,according to the coarse-grained characteristics of the time series of the meteorological disaster status and trends,the compound-disaster status and trends are classified and encoded.Secondly,by dividing compound disaster areas,compound geographic feature areas,and overlapping areas of compound disasters and geographic features,a granularity adaptive division method for line segments is proposed.Then,according to the mechanism of“offline optimization based on classification features,and online execution based on actual disaster situations”,the failure rate of each line segment under each type of compound-disaster status and trends is evaluated.Taking the disaster causing process of compound disasters as a whole,the time series of failure rate of each transmission line is obtained by aggregating the failure rates of line segments.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by taking the actual power grid operation data of a certain province in China as a case.

关 键 词：复合灾害 故障率 整体还原论 输电线路 在线评估 自适应决策优化 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]