巨型梯级水电站对电网新能源极端波动的防御能力分析方法  

Analytical Method for Defense Capability of Large-scale Cascade Hydropower Stations Against Extreme Fluctuations of Renewable Energy in Power Grid

作　　者：张俊涛 程春田[1] 曹辉 蔡华祥 ZHANG Juntao;CHENG Chuntian;CAO Hui;CAI Huaxiang(Institute of Hydropower and Hydroinformatics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch and Communication Center,Yichang 443002,China;Kunming Power Exchange Center Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650011,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁省大连市116024 [2]三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心,湖北省宜昌市443002 [3]昆明电力交易中心有限责任公司,云南省昆明市650011

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2025年第4期53-64,共12页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家博士后创新人才支持计划资助项目(BX20230055);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52239001)。

摘　　要：由于汛枯期工况的差异,复杂的水力、电力联系,以及防洪、生态、通航等综合利用需求,如何评估千万千瓦级巨型梯级水电站对新能源持续多日极端波动的防御能力是亟待解决的难题。首先,提出了新能源极端波动解析表征方法,从电网多年历史数据中提取了极端波动样本,揭示了风光极端波动特性。基于此,建立了梯级水电站对新能源极端波动防御能力的扰动优化评估模型,并采用0-1混合整数线性化建模技术实现了模型高效求解。以中国西南某省电网某流域梯级水电站为应用实例,分析了梯级水电站对新能源极端波动的防御能力及其对新能源装机发展水平的敏感性,结果可为极端天气下电网电力电量平衡调度提供指导。Due to the differences in operation conditions during dry and wet seasons,complex relations between water power and electric power,and comprehensive utilization demands such as flood control,ecology,navigation and so on,it is difficult to solve how to evaluate the defense capability of 10 GW-level large-scale cascade hydropower stations against long-period extreme fluctuations of renewable energy.First,the analytical characterization method of extreme fluctuations of renewable energy is proposed,and the extreme fluctuation events are mined from the historical data so that the characteristics of wind powerphotovoltaic extreme fluctuations can be revealed.On this basis,a perturbation optimization evaluation model of defense capability of cascade hydropower plants against extreme fluctuations of renewable energy is established.The 0-1 mixed-integer linearization modeling technique is adopted to efficiently solve the mathematical model.Taking a river basin cascade hydropower stations station of a Southwest provincial power grid in China as an application case,the defense capability of cascade hydropower stations against extreme fluctuations of renewable energy and its sensitivity to the renewable energy installed capacity are analyzed,and the results can provide guidance for electric power and energy balance scheduling under extreme weather in power grid.

关 键 词：梯级水电站 新能源 极端波动 防御能力 电力电量平衡 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TV74[水利工程—水利水电工程]