连续多日低风速事件的时空分布特性及对电力供应影响初探  

Exploration of Temporal-Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Long-period Low-wind-speed Events and Their Impacts on Power Supply

作　　者：吕循岩 肖晋宇 侯金鸣 金晨 姜海洋 杜尔顺 LYU Xunyan;XIAO Jinyu;HOU Jinming;JIN Chen;JIANG Haiyang;DU Ershun(Global Energy Interconnection Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100031,China;Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Laboratory of Low Carbon Energy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]全球能源互联网集团有限公司,北京市100031 [2]清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系,北京市100084 [3]清华大学低碳能源实验室,北京市100084

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2025年第4期79-89,共11页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72243004,52277106)。

摘　　要：储能技术为新型电力系统应对高比例新能源发电随机性、波动性带来的系统供应充裕度不足问题提供了重要技术手段。然而,小概率的长时间“微风寡照”气象事件将给电力可靠供应带来高风险影响。考虑事件发生规律在空间上的互补特性,在规划阶段对新能源基地选址进行统筹优化,是提高受电地区新能源发电充裕度的重要技术手段之一。基于高分辨率、长周期历史气象分析数据集,聚焦连续多日低风速静稳天气事件时空分布特性,提出了连续多日低风速静稳天气事件的界定指标,完成了静稳天气筛选,并量化分析了单一地理格点的时序分布特征。在此基础上,提出了基于事件空间形态特征的中国电力气象分区测算结果,量化评估了低风速长期静稳天气事件对电力供应充裕度及新能源布局的影响。Energy storage technology provides an important technical means for the new power system to deal with the problem of insufficient system supply adequacy caused by the randomness and volatility of high proportion of renewable energy generation.However,low-probability long-period meteorological events of low wind-speed and low irradiation bring a high-risk impact on the reliable power supply.Considering the spatial complementary characteristics of the event occurrence law,the overall optimization of the renewable energy base location in the planning stage is one of the important technical means to improve the adequacy of renewable energy generation in the receiving area.Based on the high-resolution long-period historical meteorological analysis data set,focusing on the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of long-period low-wind-speed steady weather events,the definition index of the long-period low-wind-speed steady weather events is proposed,the steady weather screening is completed,and the temporal distribution characteristics of a single geographical grid point are quantitatively analyzed.On this basis,the calculation results of the electric power meteorological region in China based on the spatial morphological characteristics of the event are proposed,and the influence of long-period low-wind-speed steady weather events on the power supply adequacy and the location and layout of renewable energy is quantitatively evaluated.

关 键 词：新型电力系统 连续多日低风速事件 静稳天气 时空分布 电力充裕度 规划 新能源 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]