极端天气下电力系统风险管理及弹性提升的市场化机制设计  

Marketization Mechanism Design for Risk Management and Resilience Enhancement of Power System Under Extreme Weather Conditions

作　　者：徐铭乾 李更丰[1] 别朝红[1] 邹文秋 李明昊 卞艺衡 XU Mingqian;LI Gengfeng;BIE Zhaohong;ZOU Wenqiu;LI Minghao;BIAN Yiheng(State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment(Xi’an Jiaotong University),Xi’an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]电工材料电气绝缘全国重点实验室(西安交通大学),陕西省西安市710049

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2025年第4期90-102,共13页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52222705)。

摘　　要：提升电力系统弹性对保证电力系统在自然灾害条件下的安全稳定运行意义重大。设计相应的市场化机制是提升电力系统弹性、激励电力资源投资的重要方式。为此,文中提出了电力系统弹性提升的市场化机制框架,并给出了弹性保险、灾前电力期货市场的详细定义及模式。然后,引入保险理论建立弹性保险模型,并提出了灾前电力期货市场模型。进一步,对弹性保险模型进行算例分析,分析结果表明所提出的市场化机制可以在实现保险公司净利润最大化的同时提升电力系统弹性。最后,给出了电力系统弹性与经济性平衡的初步规律。The resilience enhancement of power systems under natural disaster conditions is of great significance to ensure the safe and stable operation of power systems.Designing the corresponding marketization mechanisms is an important way to enhance the power system resilience and incentivize the investment of electric power resources.Therefore,a marketization mechanism framework for the resilience enhancement of power systems is proposed,and the detailed definitions and modes of resilience insurance and pre-disaster electricity futures markets are given.Subsequently,insurance theory is introduced to establish the resilience insurance model,and the model of the pre-disaster electricity futures market is also proposed.Furthermore,a case analysis is conducted on the resilience insurance model,and the analysis results show that the proposed marketization mechanism can achieve the goal of maximizing the net profit of the insurance company and enhancing the power system resilience at the same time.Finally,the preliminary laws of balancing the resilience and economy of power systems are presented.

关 键 词：电力系统 弹性 极端天气 电力市场 保险 电力期货市场 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]