保障极端天气下供需安全的新型电力系统电源规划  

Power Source Planning of New Power System for Guaranteeing Supply-Demand Security Under Extreme Weather

作　　者：阮前途 叶荣 RUAN Qiantu;YE Rong(State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350001,China;Institute of Economic and Technology of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350012,China)

机构地区：[1]国网福建省电力有限公司,福建省福州市350001 [2]国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,福建省福州市350012

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2025年第4期103-115,共13页Automation of Electric Power Systems

摘　　要：近年来,愈加频繁的持续性高温干旱、低温冰冻等极端天气造成了区域电力系统供需失衡,导致大规模停电或限电的发生。主要原因是新型电力系统中,极端天气对供需平衡的影响更大。针对长期性气候变化,阐明了电力系统弹性评价与提升的整体研究框架。首先,构建含气候参数的系统运行抽象模型,以刻画不同类型极端天气对各类电源、电网、负荷的影响;其次,提出基于去噪变分自编码器算法的极端场景集生成方法;最后,面向持续性极端天气的供需保障,提出新型电力系统多类型电源扩展规划方法。基于中国南方某省份的极端天气历史数据生成典型源荷场景集,结合IEEE标准算例进行仿真,验证了所提协同规划方法的有效性。In recent years,the increasing extreme weather such as the continuous high-temperature draught and low-temperature ice-coating has caused the power supply-demand imbalance in regional power systems,resulting in the occurrence of large-scale power outages or load curtailment.The main reason is that in the new power system,extreme weather has higher impact on supplydemand balance.Aiming at the long-term climate change,a framework of resilience assessment and enhancement of the power system is illustrated.Firstly,a compact operation model of power systems considering the climate parameters is established to characterize the impact of different types of extreme weather on various power sources,power grids,and loads.Secondly,an extreme scenario generation method based on the modular denoising variational autoencoder(MDVAE)algorithm is proposed.Finally,a multi-type power source expansion planning method of new power systems is proposed for power supply-demand guarantees under the continuous extreme weather.Based on the typical source-load scenario set generated from the extreme weather data in a province in South China,the proposed collaborative planning method is verified by the simulation with IEEE standard cases.

关 键 词：新型电力系统 弹性 供需平衡 极端天气 场景生成 电源规划 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]