对中国“未富先老”概念和阶段的重新审视  

Re-examining the Concept and Stage of“Getting Old Before Getting Rich” in China

作　　者：童玉芬[1] 杨艳飞 TONG Yu-fen;YANG Yan-fei

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学人口经济研究所 [2]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院

出　　处：《河北学刊》2025年第2期173-180,共8页Hebei Academic Journal

基　　金：2024年度国家社会科学基金重点项目“从人口发展新常态到人口高质量发展的引领机制与实现路径”(24ARK001)

摘　　要：当前,中国人口老龄化和经济发展水平发生了巨大变化,然而1980年代中国学者提出的“未富先老”概念依然在被广泛沿用,此概念是否还符合目前的中国国情值得重新审视。对中国人口老龄化和经济发展的对应关系进行分析,可以发现:(1)从全国整体来看,中国依然处在“未富先老”的发展状态。(2)从区域差异视角来看,当前中国同时存在“未富未老”“未富先老”“已富已老”三种发展状态,区域差异明显。(3)2023年,处于“未富先老”发展状态的省份占比超过七成,大部分位于中西部地区。有8个省份处于“已富已老”的发展状态,主要位于东部地区。(4)辽宁和西藏分别是唯一处于“未富重老”和“未富未老”阶段的省份。因此,需要因地制宜,分类施策,充分利用不同区域经济发展的阶段性和老龄化程度的差异性,在国家区域协调发展战略的引领下,结合本地实际情况灵活应对人口老龄化社会的机遇与挑战。China’s population ageing and level of economic development have changed dramatically,but the concept of“getting old before getting rich”proposed by Chinese scholars in the 1980s is still in use,and it is worthwhile to re-examine whether the concept of“getting old before getting rich”is still in line with the current national situation.This paper adopts the direct comparison method to analyse the correspondence between population ageing and economic development in China.The study finds that:(1)From the perspective of the country as a whole,China is still in the state of“getting old before getting rich”.(2)From the perspective of regional differences,there are three kinds of development statuses in China,namely,“neither rich or old”,“getting old before getting rich”and“both rich and old”,with obvious regional differences.(3)In 2023,more than 70%of the provinces and regions will be in the state of“getting old before getting rich”,and most of them will be located in the central and western regions.Eight provinces and regions are in the development state of“both rich and old”,mainly located in the eastern region.(4)Liaoning and Tibet are the only provinces and regions in China that are at the stages of“deep aging without being rich”and“neither rich or old”,respectively.It is necessary to tailor policies to local conditions,make full use of the differences in the stages of economic development and the degree of ageing in different regions,and respond flexibly to the opportunities and challenges of an ageing society in the light of local realities,under the leadership of the national strategy of coordinated regional development.

关 键 词：中国 未富先老 区域差异 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]