创新风险与股权融资——基于“中国制造2025”产业政策的准自然实验  

Innovation Risks and Equity Financing:A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on“Made in China 2025”Industrial Policies

作　　者：邓尚沅 杨冀轩 徐佳君 Deng Shangyuan;Yang Jixuan;Xu Jiajun

机构地区：[1]北京大学新结构经济学研究院 [2]北京大学医学人文学院

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2025年第1期76-93,共18页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72141301)。

摘　　要：通过构建理论模型,揭示创新风险对企业股权融资需求的内在机理及其影响因素。以2015年发布的“中国制造2025”产业政策作为准自然实验,实证分析创新风险对地区股权融资活动的影响。研究结果表明,在政策重点支持产业内,高创新风险地区的股权融资活动显著增加,且该效应在不同规模的企业中均有体现,在信用环境较优、知识产权保护水平较高、通讯基础设施较为完善的城市中尤为突出。机制分析显示,股权融资活动增加源于产业政策有效激发了技术前沿地区企业投身于高风险的创新活动,从而刺激了企业对股权融资需求的增长。建议地区股权融资的发展策略应当基于实体经济面临的创新风险,关注不同规模企业的融资需求,同时重视提升地区信用环境、加强知识产权保护和完善通讯基础设施的建设。This study constructed a theoretical model to reveal the intrinsic mechanism behind the impact of innovation risks on corporate equity financing needs and the corresponding influencing factors.The implementation of the“Made in China 2025”industrial policies was taken as a quasi-natural experiment to empirically analyze the impact of innovation risks on regional equity financing activities.The results showed that,within industries with key policy support,equity financing activities in regions with high innovation risks increased significantly,and this effect was observed in enterprises of different sizes.This effect was especially true in cities with better credit environments,higher levels of intellectual property protection,and relatively complete communication infrastructure.Mechanism analysis found the reason for the increase in equity financing activities—in other words,industrial policies effectively stimulated enterprises in technological frontier regions to engage in high-risk innovative activities,thus stimulating their demand for equity financing.The development strategies for regional equity financing should be formulated on the basis of the innovation risks faced by the real economy.Such strategies should also focus on the financing demand of enterprises of different sizes and attach importance to improving the regional credit environment,strengthening intellectual property protection,and perfecting communication infrastructure construction.

关 键 词：股权融资 创新风险 中国制造2025 技术距离 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]