2005—2020年中国60岁及以上老年人群肺结核疾病负担研究  

Study on pulmonary tuberculosis disease burden in the elderly aged 60 and above in China,2005—2020

作　　者：张梦迪 王琦琦[2] 王鑫[1] 郑文静[2] 孙雯珊 肖依然 郭晓敏[3] 刘剑君 黄飞[5] 么鸿雁[1] Zhang Mengdi;Wang Qiqi;Wang Xin;Zheng Wenjing;Sun Wenshan;Xiao Yiran;Guo Xiaomin;Liu Jianjun;Huang Fei;Yao Hongyan(Office of Education and Training(Graduate School),Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Office of Epidemiology(Technical Guidance Office for Patriotic Health Work),Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Center for Logistics Management and Operations,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Chinese Antituberculosis Association,Beijing 100010,China;Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心教育培训处(研究生院),北京102206 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心流行病学办公室(爱国卫生工作技术指导处),北京102206 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心后勤运营管理中心,北京102206 [4]中国防痨协会,北京100010 [5]中国疾病预防控制中心结核病预防控制中心,北京102206

出　　处：《中国防痨杂志》2025年第3期338-347,共10页Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3603003,2022YFC3603002)。

摘　　要：目的:分析2005—2020年中国60岁及以上老年人群肺结核疾病负担,为制定合理有效的防控措施提供依据。方法:从“中国结核病信息管理系统”“全国疾病监测系统”和“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”中分别收集2005—2020年中国60岁及以上老年人群肺结核的发病、死亡和人口数据,利用DisModⅡ模型估算患病率,并计算因肺结核造成的伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)。分析标化发病率、患病率、死亡率、DALYs率和DALYs等疾病负担指标的时间变化趋势,以及DALYs率/标化DALYs率在不同性别、年龄和地区人群中的分布特征。结果:2005—2020年中国60岁及以上老年人群肺结核标化发病率(从2005年的174.60/10万下降至2020年的84.73/10万)、标化患病率(从2005年的1117.00/10万下降至2020年的605.60/10万)、标化死亡率(从2005年的35.44/10万下降至2020年的6.67/10万)、标化DALYs率(从2005年的972.90/10万下降至2020年的276.76/10万)均呈下降趋势(AAPC值分别为-4.59%、-3.90%、-10.11%和-7.11%,P值均<0.001)。16年间老年肺结核所致的DALYs合计1478.50万人年,其中,男性DALYs为1070.18万人年,标化DALYs率从2005年的1433.14/10万下降至2020年的426.85/10万,年均下降7.08%(AAPC=-7.08%,P<0.001);女性DALYs为408.32万人年,标化DALYs率从2005年的549.10/10万下降至2020年的140.20/10万,年均下降7.36%(AAPC=-7.36%,P<0.001)。除85岁以上组以外,60~64岁、65~69岁、70~74岁、75~79岁和80~84岁年龄组的DALYs率(分别由2005年的766.51/10万、962.88/10万、1198.22/10万、1213.31/10万和1024.62/10万下降至2020年的196.99/10万、250.27/10万、316.11/10万、379.65/10万和389.89/10万),均呈明显下降趋势(AAPC值分别为-7.73%、-8.33%、-7.50%、-6.12%、-5.60%,P值均<0.001)。老年肺结核所致标化DALYs率在城市的下降幅度(AAPC=-6.54%,P<0.001)稍低于农村地区(AAPC=-6.89%,P<0.001),西部地区(AAPC=-6.04%,P<0.001)低于东部(AAPC=-7.07%,P<0.001)和中部地区(AAPC=-7Objective:To analyze the disease burden caused by pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in the elderly aged 60 and above in China from 2005 to 2020 to provide reference for developing reasonable and effective measures of TB control and prevention.Methods:Data related to PTB incidence,mortality,and demographic among the elderly aged 60 and above in China from 2005 to 2020 were collected from the Tuberculosis Management Information System,the National Disease Surveillance Points System and the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System respectively.DisModⅡmodel was used to estimate the prevalence and calculate disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)attributed to PTB.The temporal trends of PTB disease burden including standardized incidence,prevalence,mortality,DALYs rate and DALYs were analyzed,as well as the distribution characteristics of DALYs rate/standardized DALYs rate in different gender,region,and age.Results:From 2005 to 2020,the age-standardized incidence,prevalence,mortality and DALYs rates of PTB among the elderly aged 60 and above in China showed downward trend.The age-standardized incidence decreased from 174.60/100000 in 2005 to 84.73/100000 in 2020(AAPC=-4.59%,P<0.001);the age-standardized prevalence declined from 1117.00/100000 in 2005 to 605.60/100000 in 2020(AAPC=-3.90%,P<0.001);the age-standardized mortality fell from 35.44/100000 in 2005 to 6.67/100000 in 2020(AAPC=-10.11%,P<0.001);and the age-standardized DALYs rates reduced from 972.90/100000 in 2005 to 276.76/100000 in 2020(AAPC=-7.11%,P<0.001).The total DALYs attributed to PTB in the elderly was 14785000 person-years during 16 years,with 10701800 for males and 4083200 for females.The age-standardized DALYs rates attributed to PTB in elderly males decreased from 1433.14/100000 in 2005 to 426.85/100000 in 2020(AAPC=-7.08%,P<0.001),and in elderly females decreased from 549.10/100000 in 2005 to 140.20/100000 in 2020(AAPC=-7.36%,P<0.001).An obvious declining trend was observed in the age group of 60-64,65-69,70-74,75-79,and 80-84(which decreas

关 键 词：结核 疾病负担 老年人 

分 类 号：R52[医药卫生—内科学] R181.2[医药卫生—临床医学]