基于改进灰色马尔科夫模型煤矿事故次数预测研究  

Research on Predicting the Number of Coal Mine AccidentsBased on Improved Grey Markov Model

作　　者：江善超 张树川[1] JIANG Shanchao;ZHANG Shuchuan(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Science&Technology,Huainan 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学安全科学与工程学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《宿州学院学报》2024年第12期42-46,共5页Journal of Suzhou University

基　　金：安徽省教育厅自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2018A0099);安徽省省级研究生线上线下混合示范课程(2022hhsfkc021)。

摘　　要：为精准预测煤矿事故发生次数,深入剖析传统灰色模型、无偏灰色模型和等维新息无偏灰色模型在煤矿事故预测领域的适用性和实用性。首先,采用均方差比值、小误差概率和平均相对误差3个指标,对3种模型的预测精度进行分析;其次,采用马尔科夫模型对最佳的灰色模型预测结果进行优化修正;最后,使用修正后的灰色模型预测2024—2026年煤矿事故发生次数。结果表明:在对比分析传统灰色模型、无偏灰色模型和等维新息无偏灰色模型的预测精度后,发现等维新息无偏灰色模型在预测中表现出最佳的预测性能;等维新息无偏灰色模型预测精度为86.3%,引入马尔科夫模型进行修正后,预测精度上升至94.8%,优化后的模型预测结果更精准。等维新息无偏灰色马尔科夫模型预测未来3年全国煤矿事故发生次数呈持续下降趋势。To accurately predict the number of coal mine accidents,a thorough analysis is conducted on the applicability and practicality of traditional grey models,unbiased grey models,and equidimensional new information un-biased grey models in the field of coal mine accident prediction.Firstly,the prediction accuracy of the three models was analyzed using three indicators:mean squared error ratio,small error probability,and average relative error;then,the Markov model is used to optimize and correct the optimal grey model prediction results;finally,the revised grey model is used to predict the number of coal mine accidents from 2024 to 2026.The results showed that after comparing and analyzing the prediction accuracy of traditional grey models,unbiased grey models,and equidimensional unbiased grey models,it was found that the equidimensional unbiased grey models exhibited the best predictive performance in prediction;the prediction accuracy of the unbiased grey model with equal dimensional innovation is 86.3%.After introducing the Markov model for correction,the prediction accuracy has increased to 94.8%,and the optimized model has a more accurate prediction result.The equal dimensional new information unbiased grey Markov model predicts that the number of coal mine accidents in China will continue to decline in the next three years.

关 键 词：煤矿事故 灰色模型 无偏灰色模型 等维新息无偏灰色模型 马尔科夫模型 

分 类 号：TD77[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]