基于AMSAA模型的航天产品可靠性增长预测研究  

Research on Reliability Growth Prediction of Aerospace Products based on AMSAA Model

作　　者：胡琳 吴和成[2] HU Lin;WU Hecheng(Wuxi Vocational College of Science and Technology,Wuxi,214028;Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing,211106)

机构地区：[1]无锡科技职业学院,无锡214028 [2]南京航空航天大学,南京211106

出　　处：《导弹与航天运载技术(中英文)》2025年第1期42-50,64,共10页Missiles and Space Vehicles

摘　　要：基于AMSAA模型以研发阶段收集的同类或相似产品故障数据为核心,创新性地引入离散系数最小化原则作为优化标准,用于指导拟合优度检验统计量的选取。在整合平均值与方差等多元信息后,构建了一种全新的时间环境折合系数求解算法,旨在对原始故障数据进行有效折算,进而精准估算模型各项参数。对所得折合系数进行求解,并在10种不同置信度设定下,逐一计算产品设计成型时平均无故障工作时间(Mean Time Between Failure,MTBF)的单侧置信下限。实例研究表明,当置信区间位于0.9~0.99之间时,无论同一置信水平如何,该方法始终能得出优于现有文献的结果,即采用该方法对航天产品可靠性增长进行预测,其准确度显著提升。此外,在不同置信水平下,由改进方法求解的时间环境折合系数值并没有改变,即每个试验项目的环境应力和真实环境应力之间的数量关系并没有因为置信度的增加而变化,也从另一个角度证明了该改进方法更接近于工程实践。Based on the AMSAA model,which is centered on the failure data of the same or similar products collected during the R&D stage,the principle of minimization of discrete coefficients is innovatively introduced as an optimization criterion,which is used to guide the selection of goodness-of-fit test statistics.After integrating multivariate information such as mean and variance,a new algorithm for solving the time-environmental folding coefficients is constructed,aiming at effectively folding the original failure data and then accurately estimating various parameters of the model.By solving the resulting folding coefficients,the one-sided lower confidence limits of MTBF(Mean Time Between Failure)are calculated one by one for each of the 10 different confidence settings when the product design is being molded.Example studies show that when the confidence interval is between 0.9 and 0.99,the method consistently produces better results than the existing literature regardless of the same confidence level,i.e.,the accuracy of the method is significantly improved for predicting the reliability growth of aerospace products.In addition,the values of the time-environment folding coefficients solved by the improved method do not change at different confidence levels,i.e.,the quantitative relationship between the environmental stresses and the real environmental stresses for each test item does not change due to the increase in confidence level,which also proves that the improved method is closer to the engineering practice from another perspective.

关 键 词：研制试验 故障数据 AMSAA模型 时间环境折合系数 可靠性增长 

分 类 号：V240.2[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]