基于蒙特卡罗法的燃气轮机总体性能不确定性分析  

Uncertainty Analysis of Gas Turbine Overall Performance Based on Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：卢文强 陈岩[3] 付经伦 刘海松[3] 孔祥玲 LU Wenqiang;CHEN Yan;FU Jinglun;LIU Haisong;KONG Xiangling(Research Center of Fluid Machinery Engineering and Technology,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,Jiangsu Province,China;Advanced Gas Turbine Laboratory,Institute of Engineering Thermophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Haidian District,Beijing 100190,China;Jiangsu Yanhai Chemical Co.,Ltd.,Yancheng 224500,Jiangsu Province,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Haidian District,Beijing 100190,China;Nanjing Institute of Future Energy System,IET,CAS,Nanjing 211135,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏大学流体机械工程技术研究中心,江苏省镇江市212013 [2]中国科学院工程热物理研究所先进燃气轮机实验室,北京市海淀区100190 [3]江苏盐海化工有限公司,江苏省盐城市224500 [4]中国科学院大学,北京市海淀区100190 [5]中科南京未来能源系统研究院,江苏省南京市211135

出　　处：《发电技术》2025年第1期126-134,共9页Power Generation Technology

基　　金：江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项资金(重大科技示范)(BE2022614)。

摘　　要：【目的】燃气轮机设计加工过程中,部件几何结构和运行条件存在着许多不确定性,从而引起燃机热力性能的显著波动。为了准确辨识燃机运行状态,需要定量评估这种不确定性对关联部件及整机总体性能的影响。【方法】基于蒙特卡罗方法和燃气轮机热力过程机理方程组,建立燃气轮机总体性能不确定性分析模型,研究部件效率、流量不确定性的定量传播特性。针对航改燃机结构,引入压气机效率、压气机进口流量、透平效率和冷却空气流量4个独立参数的不确定分布,获得各影响参数不确定性相互耦合及独立情况下,燃机总体性能及部件运行参数概率分布。【结果】相比于其他3个参数,透平效率的不确定性对燃机输出功率分布、效率和排温的影响更明显;压气机效率虽然对其他部件工作状态的影响范围更大,但当叠加其他不确定因素后,影响程度降低;整机各处的温度和输出功率更易受部件不确定性的影响。【结论】设计及运行中透平应是重点关注部件。在燃机使用中,监测温度及输出功率更能捕捉到部件性能的波动。[Objectives]In the design and manufacturing process of gas turbines,there are many uncertainties in the geometric structure and operating conditions of the components,leading to significant fluctuations in the thermal performance of the gas turbine.In order to accurately identify the operating state of the gas turbine,it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate the impact of these uncertainties on the overall performance of related components and the entire system.[Methods]Based on the Monte Carlo method and the thermal process mechanism equations of the gas turbine,an uncertainty analysis model for the overall turbine system is developed to study the quantitative propagation characteristics of component efficiency and flow uncertainty.For the structure of aero-derivative gas turbine,the uncertainty distribution of four independent parameters—compressor efficiency,compressor inlet flow,turbine efficiency,and cooling air flow are introduced.The probability distribution of the overall performance and component operation parameters of the gas turbine are obtained under the conditions of both coupled and independent uncertainties of each parameter.[Results]Compared with the other three parameters,the uncertainty of turbine efficiency has a more significant impact on the output power distribution,efficiency,and exhaust temperature of gas turbine.While compressor efficiency has a greater impact on the operating state of other components,its impact is reduced when combined with other uncertainties.The temperatures and output power at each point of the entire system are more susceptible to the uncertainty of the components.[Conclusions]The turbine should be a key focus in both design and operation.During gas turbine operation,monitoring temperature and output power is more effective in capturing fluctuations in component performance.

关 键 词：燃气轮机 发电机组 蒙特卡罗方法 不确定性 总体性能 热力性能 运行状态 

分 类 号：TK14[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]