改进Gompertz模型的中国省域乘用车保有量预测  

Provincial passenger cars ownership forecasting based on an improved Gompertz model in China

作　　者：刘焕新 彭育辉[1] LIU Huanxin;PENG Yuhui(School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学机械工程及自动化学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《福州大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期51-60,共10页Journal of Fuzhou University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：能源基金会资助项目(G-2206-33976)。

摘　　要：为更好预测至2050年中国内地省级区域的乘用车保有量,提出一种改进的基于面板回归的Gompertz模型(本模型).基于样本国家历史数据,通过面板回归模型,获得影响因素对千人乘用车拥有率饱和值的对应关系;引入一个可控制曲线拐点位置的形状因子(λ)对Gompertz模型进行改进,并基于基尼系数提出修正函数.研究结果表明,本模型拥有更好的预测精度,预测各省级区域的千人乘用车拥有率将在2031—2042年进入饱和状态.由各省累加获得全国乘用车保有量预测值,在2035年、2050年将分别达到4.75和5.24亿辆,可为相关政策的制定提供理论支持.An improved Gompertz model based on panel regression was proposed to better forecast the passenger car ownership in provincial regions of mainland in China by 2050.Based on historical panel data,the connection between influent factors and the saturation value of passenger car ownership per 1000 people of Gompertz model was figured out.Furthermore,a shape factorλthat can control the position of the curve inflection point was introduced to improve the Gompertz model.In addition,a modified function based on the Gini coefficient was also suggested.As a result,the research findings indicate that the improved Gompertz model exhibits superior predictive accuracy.The development of the passenger car ownership rate in provincial regions are projected to reach saturation among 2031 and 2042.The national passenger car ownership estimates,obtained by aggregating data from all provinces,are predicted to reach 475 million and 524 million by 2035 and 2050,respectively.These projections can offer theoretical support for the formulation of relevant policies.

关 键 词：公路运输 保有量预测 Gompertz模型 乘用车 面板数据 基尼系数 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]