全球电信产品贸易网络时空演化及其影响因素  

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Global Telecommunication Product Trade Network

作　　者：乐为 冯妍 LE Wei;FENG Yan(College of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《对外经贸实务》2025年第1期23-31,共9页Practice in Foreign Economic Relations and Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新能源汽车补贴的策略协同研究”(18BJY071)。

摘　　要：基于2004—2021年全球50个国家的进出口贸易数据构建全球电信产品贸易网络,使用指数随机图模型分析全球电信产品贸易格局演变的影响因素。结果表明:(1)全球电信产品贸易格局呈现高聚类、短路径的“小世界性”特征,网络中心格局逐渐向层次特征明显、多个并存演化,呈现明显的核心—边缘结构;(2)中国始终在电信产品贸易网络中处于核心地位,其贸易伙伴分布广泛且贸易规模持续扩大;(3)贸易网络的互惠性结构、经济规模、研发水平以及地理毗邻对电信产品贸易具有显著影响。Based on the import and export trade data of 50 countries in the world from 2004 to 2021,this study constructs a global trade network of telecommunication products and employs an exponential random graph model to analyze the factors influencing the evolution of the trade pattern.The results show that:(1)the global trade pattern of telecommunication products presents the"small-world"characteristics of high clustering and short path lengths,and the central pattern of the network has gradually evolved to the obvious hierarchical characteristics,multiple coexistence,and presents the obvious core-edge structure;(2)China has always been at the core of the trade network of telecommunication products,with a wide distribution of trade partners and a continuously expanding trade volume;(3)the reciprocal structure of the trade network,economic scale,R&D levels,and geographic proximity have a significant impact on the telecommunication products trade.

关 键 词：电信产品 贸易网络 时空演化 指数随机图模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]