海南省农业与旅游业耦合发展的时序演进及优化对策  

Optimization Countermeasures and Time-series Evolution of the Combined Development of Tourism and Agriculture in Hainan Province

作　　者：刘馨予 王佳楠[1] Liu Xinyu;Wang Jianan(Hainan University International Business School,Haikou 570100,Hainan)

机构地区：[1]海南大学国际商学院,海南海口570100

出　　处：《农业展望》2024年第10期135-142,共8页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“数字经济赋能农业虚拟产业集群的理论机理与实现路径研究:基于协同创新网络视角”(编号:72363011)。

摘　　要：农旅融合是传承农村本土文化、拓宽农村经济渠道的有效途径。现如今农旅融合已为农村地方经济增效及可持续发展做出重要贡献。基于海南农旅融合健康可持续发展目标,本研究选取2017—2021年农旅产业相关面板数据,通过熵值法、耦合协调度模型及灰色关联模型对海南省农业与旅游业整体综合发展水平、耦合协调度及时序演进进行等级划分,并提出优化对策。结果显示,海南省农业与旅游业的综合发展水平分别从2017年的0.187和0.186上升至2021年的0.848和0.85,其间旅游业综合发展水平于新冠疫情期间出现明显波动,但两大产业综合评价值呈现出协同上升趋势;耦合协调度由2017年的轻度失调逐步于2021年转变为优质协调,且两大系统要素与整体发展水平维持高关联状态。在农业与旅游业高度关联并呈现较高耦合协调度的基础上,本研究认为海南省应积极利用本地特有发展政策推进“以旅促农”、创新“以农助旅”业态,增强两大产业韧性。Integrating agriculture tourism with rural areas is a great strategy to spread rural economic opportunities and preserve local culture.The modern rural local economy has benefited greatly from the efficient and long-term growth of agriculture tourism integration.Aiming at the objectives of healthy and sustainable development,through the integration of agriculture and tourism in Hainan province,this research selected panel data from the agricultural and tourism sectors from 2017 to 2021,used the entropy method,coupling coordination degree model,and grey relational model to classify the comprehensive development level,coupling coordination degree,and temporal progression of agriculture and tourism in Hainan province,subsequently proposing optimization strategies.The results showed that the comprehensive development indices for agriculture and tourism in Hainan province escalated from 0.187 and 0.186 in 2017 to 0.848 and 0.85 in 2021,respectively.Notably,the tourism sector's development index experienced significant volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic,yet both industries exhibited a concurrent upward trend in their comprehensive evaluations.The coupling coordination degree transitioned from a state of mild imbalance in 2017 to one of superior coordination by 2021,with the systemic elements of both sectors maintaining a strong correlation with the overall development trajectory.In light of the pronounced interdependence and elevated coupling coordination between agriculture and tourism,this study believed that Hainan province should capitalize on its unique developmental policies to foster"tourism-driven agriculture"and pioneer innovative"agriculture-supported tourism"paradigms,so as to bolster the resilience of both industries.

关 键 词：农旅融合 区域经济发展 熵值法 耦合协调度模型 灰色关联模型 时序演进 相对发展指数 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]