高等教育对初婚进入的影响——来自2010-2021年CGSS数据的新证据  

The Impact of Higher Education on First Marriage--New Evidence from CGSS 2010-2021 Data

作　　者：陆杰华 孙杨 LU Jiehua;SUN Yang(Center for Sociological Research and Development of China,Peking University,Beijing,100871,China;School of Ethnology and Sociology,Minzu University of China,Beijing,100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会与发展研究中心,北京100871 [2]中央民族大学民族学与社会学学院,北京100081

出　　处：《人口学刊》2025年第2期1-16,共16页Population Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目:中国人口长期均衡发展关键问题研究(22JJD840001)。

摘　　要：随着经济发展和社会变迁,教育背景和社会经济条件越来越成为建立婚姻关系的重要基础。当前普遍存在的初婚推迟现象为人口长期均衡发展带来了持续挑战。既有以初婚年龄考察教育水平提升与婚姻推迟间关系的研究存在忽视教育发展客观性和必然性、计量模型内生性问题难以解决、无法解释教育对婚姻市场的实际影响等一系列问题,既没有为现代社会婚姻匹配机制提供强有力的经验证据,也难以客观反映中国教育发展与婚配市场的实际状况,需要重新审视教育与婚姻之间的关系。本文基于2010—2021年5期中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,采用Cox比例风险回归模型,在实际初婚年龄的基础上进一步将最高学历毕业时间作为观察时点,从“毕业-初婚间隔”维度探究高等教育带来的初婚自然推迟以外的社会经济净效应。研究结果发现:在剔除了上学的自然推迟之后,高等教育显著正向影响初婚风险,缩短毕业-初婚间隔,经一系列稳健性检验后该结果依然成立。上学的“禁闭效应”最终会转化为婚配市场中的社会经济优势效应、年龄追赶效应和同群社交效应,一定程度上促进年轻人更快进入婚姻。异质性分析结果显示研究生相对于专科和本科毕业生具有更明显的婚配优势。相对于女性,高等教育对男性的初婚优势主要体现在专科和本科学历层次,但在研究生学历层次出现逆转。随着人口出生队列的推移,大学专科和本科学历层次的婚配优势减弱,研究生学历层次的婚配优势增强。受中国传统婚姻文化的深刻影响,高学历的婚配优势愈加凸显,逐渐抵消甚至扭转上学对初婚造成的自然推迟,经济、社会和文化等外在约束力逐渐超越自然推迟效应,成为当代中国初婚年龄推迟的主要动因。研究表明单纯从初婚年龄角度推测教育与婚姻的关系无法估计出高等教育对初婚�With the economic development and social changes,the educational background and socioeco⁃nomic condition have increasingly become an important foundation for establishing a marriage relationship.At present,the widespread delay of first marriage poses a continuous challenge to the long-term balanced development of population in China.There are a series of problems in the existing researches on the rela⁃tionship between the improvement of education level and the postponement of first marriage age,such as ignoring the objectivity and inevitability of education development,the difficulty of endogenous measure⁃ment model,the inability to explain the actual effect of education on the marriage market,unable to provide strong empirical evidence for the marriage matching mechanism in modern society,nor objectively reflect the actual situation of the education development and marriage market in China,and thus the relationship between education and marriage needs to be re-examined.Based on CGSS 2010-2021 data,this paper further takes the highest graduation time as the observation point,and explores the net social and economic effect other than the natural delay of first marriage brought by higher education from the dimension of the interval from graduation to first marriage by using the Cox proportional hazards regression model.The results show that after excluding the natural delay of schooling,higher education significantly and positively affects the risk of first marriage and shortened the interval from graduation to first marriage.This result still held true after a series of robustness tests.The"lockdown effect"of school will eventually be transformed into the socioeconomic advantage effect,the age catch-up effect and the same group social effect in the marriage market,which to some extent promotes young people to enter marriage faster.Compared with junior college and undergraduate graduates,people who graduate degree have more obvious advantages in entering marriage.Compared with women,the advantages of higher e

关 键 词：高等教育 初婚 婚姻市场 生存分析 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理]