女性生育选择受同群育儿分工的影响吗?——基于同群参考预期约束的分析  

Are Women's Reproductive Choices Influenced by the Childcare Division among Their Peers?--Analysis Based on the Peer Reference Expectation Constraints

作　　者：郭凤鸣[1,2] 文孝斌 常慧[2] GUO Fengming;WEN Xiaobin;CHANG Hui(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin,130012,China;School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin,130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学商学与管理学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《人口学刊》2025年第2期17-29,共13页Population Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目:低生育背景下性别失衡的婚姻挤压效应及传导机制研究(22YJC840020);吉林大学劳动关系专项研究课题:灵活就业人员社会保障问题与对策研究(2021LD005)。

摘　　要：近年来我国出生人口持续下降引起了社会各界的广泛关注,大量研究聚焦女性生育选择的影响因素。随着社会的发展,生育观念也在不断变化,群体内部形成的育儿分工模式为未生育女性带来参考预期,进而影响其未来的生育选择。因此,分析同群育儿分工对女性生育选择的影响可以进一步把握影响女性生育选择的因素,并提出更具针对性的政策建议。本文建立女性生育数量的经典线性回归模型和生育选择的二元选择模型,并通过对2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)和2015年中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据进行匹配,消除同一来源数据带来的解释变量内生性问题,实证分析同群育儿分工对女性生育的影响。研究结果表明:女性承担更多照顾孩子责任的同群育儿分工模式使女性生育数量减少、二胎生育概率下降,对于不同受教育程度的女性而言,同群育儿分工对其生育选择的影响存在明显差异。相比于受教育程度较低的女性,同群育儿分工对受教育程度较高女性生育选择的负向影响更小。基于零截断计数数据模型和有序Probit模型的检验验证了主要回归结果的稳健性。异质性分析结果表明:对于不同生育观念和养育观念的女性群体而言,同群育儿分工对其生育选择的影响存在明显差异。倾向于女性承担更多的同群育儿分工对主观上认为女性就应该有孩子的女性生育的影响更小,对主观上更要求男女平等的女性生育的负向影响更大。基于调节效应模型的稳健性检验验证了异质性分析结果的稳健性。因此,通过调整群体内部育儿分工规范以提升生育率的措施是可行的。政府部门可以通过加强社会引导和相关政策支持提升男性的育儿责任,降低女性预期育儿负担,提升女性生育意愿,同时对于持保守态度的女性,应提升其改变传统分工约束的信心,从认知的角度改变�The continuous decline in China′s birth population in recent years has attracted widespread attention from all sectors of society,and a large number of studies have begun to discuss the factors influ⁃encing women′s reproductive choices.With the development of society,the concept of childbearing is also changing,and the pattern of childbearing division of labor formed within the cohort brings reference expec⁃tations for women who have not yet given birth,which in turn affects their future reproductive choices.Therefore,analyzing the impact of cohort division of labor on women′s fertility choices can further grasp the factors affecting women′s fertility choices and make more targeted policy recommendations.This paper establishes a classical linear regression model for the number of female births and a binary choice model for fertility choices and empirically analyzes the impact of cohort childcare division of labor on female births by matching the data from the 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)and the 2015 China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS)and eliminating the problem of endogeneity of the explanatory variables caused by the data from the same source.The results of the study show that the cohort childcare division of labor,in which women take on more childcare responsibilities,leads to a decrease in the number of births and the probability of having a second child,and that the impact of the cohort division of labor on fertility choices varies significantly among women with different levels of education.The cohort division of labor has a smaller negative effect on fertility choices for highly educated women than for less educated women.Robustness tests based on the zero-truncated count data model and the ordered Probit model verified the robustness of the main regression results.The results of the heterogeneity analysis indicate that there are significant differences in the impact of the cohort childcare division of labor on reproductive choices for groups of women with different concepts of c

关 键 词：育儿分工 生育选择 生育数量 同群参考 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]