离婚与晚年死亡风险  

Divorce and Mortality Risk in Later Life

作　　者：杨华磊 方格格 郝杰 李双双 YANG Hualei;FANG Gege;HAO Jie;LI Shuangshuang(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan Hubei,430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《人口学刊》2025年第2期95-110,共16页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文项目:生育与老年人福利问题研究(21FRKB003)。

摘　　要：随着社会婚恋观念的变迁,年轻群体积极寻求建立基于深度情感共鸣与价值观契合的亲密关系,但在面临关系挑战时,该群体并未能及时采取积极措施以促进关系成长与优化。在非长期理性视角下,该群体更可能将离婚视为追求自由、幸福乃至健康和长寿的有效途径,最终导致离婚率持续上升。值得关注的是离婚对个体幸福、健康和寿命的延长的影响以及是否能实现社会总福利最大化。解答离婚对寿命的影响是一个复杂而重要的问题,不仅与个体健康有关,对提高老年人晚年生活质量、延长预期寿命和提高社会总福利具有现实意义。由于年轻群体未经历完整的生命历程,无法直接评估离婚对其晚年死亡风险的影响。本文基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)2008—2018年4期纵向追踪调查数据,利用Cox比例风险模型,系统分析离婚对老年人晚年死亡风险的影响。研究结果表明:在65~89岁老年人群体中,相较于在婚群体,离婚的老年人在晚年面临更高的死亡风险,较在婚老年人高23.2%,且在5%的统计水平上显著。进一步分析显示离婚对死亡风险的影响存在显著的性别差异,即离婚更能够提高女性老年人晚年的死亡风险。机制分析表明:相较于在婚者,离婚女性晚年因经济资源匮乏、适应状态弱化和精神健康受损,进而显著增加其死亡风险。本文为探讨老年人晚年死亡风险的影响因素提供了有益的实证补充,揭示离婚与寿命之间的关联,强调婚姻关系稳定对个体晚年健康的重要性。本文的边际贡献主要体现在以下几点:第一,在研究内容上,国内研究聚焦丧偶对不同群体健康与死亡风险的影响,而离婚对死亡风险的影响未得到充分探讨。本文弥补了这一空缺。第二,在研究方法上,现有研究针对生存分析的历险时间设定有误,仅是以观测期为时间变量,而人从一出生就面临�With changing social attitudes of marriage,young people actively seek to build intimate relation⁃ships based on deep emotional resonance and value congruence,but when faced with relationship chal⁃lenges,they do not take timely and positive measures to promote relationship growth and optimization.From a short-term rationality perspective,this group may view divorce as an effective way to pursue freedom,happiness,health and longevity,leading to a persistent increase in divorce rates.Of interest is whether divorce contributes to individual happiness,health and longevity,and whether it maximizes total social welfare.Therefore,answering the question of how divorce affects longevity is a complex and important issue,not only in relation to individual health,but also in terms of improving quality of life in later life,extending life expectancy and improving total social welfare.However,since the younger cohort has not experienced a complete life course,it is not possible to directly assess the impact of divorce on their mortal⁃ity risk in later life.Therefore,this paper systematically analyses the impact of divorce status on mortality risk in the elderly using the Cox proportional hazard model with the data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)from 2008 to 2018,4 periods of longitudinal tracking survey data.The results of the study showed that in the group of older adults aged 65 to 89 years,divorced older adults faced a higher mortality risk in later life compared to the married group,which was 23.2%higher than that of married older adults and was significant at the 5%statistical level.Further analysis revealed significant gender disparities in the impact of divorce on mortality risk,divorce was more likely to increase the mortal⁃ity risk in later life among female older adults.Mechanistic analyses suggest that divorced women are significantly more at mortality risk in later life due to lack of economic resources,weakened adaptive status and impaired mental health compared to married indi

关 键 词：离婚 压力性事件 死亡风险 COX比例风险模型 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]