中国劳动力老化的空间格局演变  

The Spatial Patterns of Labor Force Aging in China

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作  者:杨旭宇 YANG Xuyu(School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China)

机构地区:[1]中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京100872

出  处:《人口学刊》2025年第2期111-128,共18页Population Journal

基  金:中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目:中国劳动力老化的空间态势研究(23XNH118)。

摘  要:在人口负增长的新人口形势下,客观全面把握我国劳动力结构老龄化发展的新态势已成为重要的时代课题,但已有研究对劳动力结构老化空间维度研究较少。本文基于2000—2020年历次全国人口普查以及1%抽样调查数据,利用人口重心模型、Dagum基尼系数测算和空间收敛检验等方法系统探究中国劳动力老化的空间格局演变特征及其空间变化态势。研究发现2000—2020年中国劳动力老化态势日趋严峻,城乡老化差距持续扩大,城乡、区域分化构成了中国劳动力老化的基本空间格局。首先,2000—2020年中国劳动力老化进程明显加剧,特别是在青年劳动人口规模和劳动供给率双重收缩态势下,人口机会窗口期将进一步压缩。与此同时,整体趋势上也出现明显的城乡分化演变特征,乡村地区的劳动力老化程度和相对增幅显著高于城镇地区,城乡老化差距持续扩大,劳动力老化进程的空间非均衡性显著加剧。其次,中国劳动力老化的空间重心总体向东北方向偏移,形成了半迂回式的演变轨迹,并且呈现出区域城乡倒置的演变模式;空间分布上表现出自西南向东北演变的分布格局,同时劳动力老化城乡差距的空间分布也出现明显转向,由南向北形成老化梯度加深态势,城乡分化现象也更加严峻;空间差异呈现出先扩大后缩小的演变轨迹,空间分化程度依然较高。最后,中国劳动力老化的空间格局演变存在显著的绝对β与条件β动态空间收敛特征,具有显著的空间收敛态势。其空间格局演变不仅受到出生水平的影响,还与区域经济发展水平、产业结构以及劳动力市场状况等密切相关。研究表明以“空间换取时间”战略发掘人口红利潜力的腾挪空间优势正逐渐收窄,中国劳动力市场将面临更加严峻的结构性挑战与优化劳动力空间配置的现实需要。在中国人口形势发生重要转折性变化之际,�Under the new demographic situation of population decline,objectively grasping the new trend of in China′s labor force aging structure has become an important issue of the times,but it has received rela⁃tively little attention in terms of spatial dimensions.Based on the data from the national censuses and 1%national sample censuses data conducted between 2000 and 2020,this paper explores the evolution char⁃acteristics and spatial variation trends of the labor force aging in China by utilizing methods such as the population gravity center model,Dagum Gini coefficient calculation,and spatial convergence test methods.The findings indicate that between 2000 and 2020,labor force aging has become increasingly severe in China,with the urban-rural aging gap continuously widening.The differentiation between urban and rural areas,as well as between different regions,constitutes the basic spatial structure of labor force aging in China.Firstly,during this period,the labor force aging process has significantly accelerated,particularly under the dual pressures of a shrinking young labor force and declining labor supply rates,further compress⁃ing China′s demographic opportunity window.Meanwhile,a distinct trend of urban-rural differentiation has emerged,with rural areas experiencing significantly higher levels and relative growth rates of labor force aging compared to urban areas,reflecting a substantial intensification of spatial inequality in the aging process.Secondly,the spatial center of labor force aging has generally shifted northeastward,forming a semi-circular trajectory,and displaying an inverted urban-rural evolution pattern.In terms of spatial distri⁃bution,the aging pattern has evolved from southwest to northeast,with a notable shift in the spatial distribu⁃tion of the urban-rural aging gap,forming a deepening aging gradient from south to north.The phenomenon of urban-rural differentiation has become more widespread,normalized,and severe.Although spatial dis⁃parities initially widened and then narr

关 键 词:劳动力老化 人口老龄化 空间非均衡 空间收敛 人口红利 

分 类 号:F240[经济管理—劳动经济]

 

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