宏观历史视野下的中国现代化——阶段递进与路径选择  

China's Modernization from a Macro-Historical Perspective:Stages of Progress and Path Selection

作　　者：李怀印[1] LI Huai-yin(University of Texas at Austin)

机构地区：[1]美国德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校历史系

出　　处：《中华民族共同体研究》2024年第5期142-165,M0006,共25页Journal of the Chinese Nation Studies

摘　　要：中国的现代化始自19世纪中叶国人有意识地探寻适合本国国情的生存发展道路,前后历时约两个世纪。这一漫长的历史过程可分为前后连贯的几个阶段。(一)19世纪后半期的救亡图存,使晚清中国避免了绝大多数非西方国家所经历的殖民地化,也避免了世界史上各大帝国在衰落过程中所普遍发生的四分五裂现象。(二)20世纪前半期的国家转型,使中国从一个传统的疆域国家转变为高度统一集中的现代主权国家。(三)正是在前两个阶段所奠定的“既大且强”的基础上,20世纪后半期整个国民经济的工业化得以全面完成。(四)在21世纪前半期的“走向成熟”阶段,凭借地缘、规模、劳动力、体制等方面的一系列优势,中国将完成产业结构的转型升级,长期维持经济平稳增长,在2035年前后迈入发达国家的门槛,最终在21世纪中叶加入高度现代化国家的行列。中国的现代化之所以能够成功,在于其历史起点、国家形成的道路、工业化的战略以及步入现代化经济体的路径,均不同于绝大多数发展中国家。China's modernization began in the mid-19th century when the Chinese people consciously sought a path of survival and development suited to their national conditions, spanning nearly two centuries. This long historical process can be divided into several interconnected stages: 1) The Late Qing Period(Mid-19th Century): The efforts to save the nation and preserve its existence helped late Qing China avoid the colonialization experienced by most non-Western countries and the fragmentation typical of major empires in their decline. 2) The First Half of the 20th Century: National transformation turned China from a traditional territorial state into a highly unified and centralized modern sovereign nation. 3) The Second Half of the 20th Century: Building on the “large and strong” foundation laid in the previous stages, China completed the industrialization of its entire national economy. 4) The First Half of the 21st Century: In the “maturation” phase, China will complete the transformation and upgrading of its industrial structure by leveraging a series of advantages in geography, scale, labor force, and institutional frameworks. It is expected to maintain steady economic growth, reach the threshold of developed countries around 2035, and ultimately join the ranks of highly modernized nations by the mid-21st century. The success of China 's modernization lies in its historical starting point, the path of its nation-building, the industrialization strategy, and the route to becoming a modern economic entity, all of which differ from the majority of other developing countries.

关 键 词：现代化 全球化 工业化 国家形成 中等收入陷阱 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]