2012—2022年北京市房山区突发公共卫生事件流行特征及趋势分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and trends of public health emergencies in Fangshan District of Beijing from 2012 to 2022

作　　者：田竞[1] 崔冉 杜世昌 孙鑫贵[2] TIAN Jing;CUI Ran;DU Shichang;SUN Xingui(Fangshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Bejing 102488,China;Bejing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Bejing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市房山区疾病预防控制中心,北京102488 [2]北京市疾病预防控制中心,北京100013

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2025年第2期167-174,共8页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：北京市优秀人才培养资助项目(项目编号:2018000077606G480);北京市房山区优秀人才培养资助项目(项目编号:2016000000007G002)。

摘　　要：目的研究2012—2022年北京市房山区突发公共卫生事件流行特征,进行趋势分析,为突发公共卫生事件风险评估和防控应对提供科学依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法和Poisson分布模型,应用SPSS 19.0软件和Joinpoint4.9.1.0软件对国家突发公共卫生事件管理信息系统报告的2012—2022年北京市房山区突发公共卫生事件信息进行统计分析和预测,以P<0.05差异有统计学意义。结果2012—2022年北京市房山区共报告突发公共卫生事件516起,其中未分级事件491起,年罹患率总体呈下降趋势。以非职业性一氧化碳中毒为主,共463起(89.73%),主要集中在11月至次年2月。传染病类事件报告居第2位,每月均有报告。食物中毒事件集中发生在9至11月。高温中暑事件致死率较高。平原地区突发公共卫生事件报告占47.29%,事件规模以发病10例以下为主,重点场所是家庭和学校。应用Poisson分布模型预测分析,北京市房山区月发生突发公共卫生事件主要频次是≥5次,发生概率最高是11月至次年2月,最低是5至6月。结论北京市房山区突发公共卫生事件防控重点是非职业性一氧化碳中毒和传染病事件,新发传染病需要加强关注,高温中暑和食物中毒事件也不容忽视,重点防控场所是学校和家庭,重点防控时间为冬春季。Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and the trend of public health emergencies in a district of Beijing,so as to provide scientific basis for risk assessment,prevention and control of public health emergencies.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method and Poisson distribution model were used and SPSS 19.0 and Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software were applied to analyze the information of public health emergencies reported by the national Public Health Emergency Management Information System in a district of Beijing from 2012 to 2022,and the difference of P<0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results From 2012 to 2022,a total of 516 public health emergencies were reported in Fangshan district of Beijing,including 491 unclassified incidents,and the annual incidence rate showed a downward trend.There were 463 cases(89.73%)of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning,mainly from November to February of the following year.Infectious diseases ranked second,with monthly reports.Food poisoning cases were concentrated in September and November.The fatality rate of heat stroke in high temperature was higher.The report of public health emergency in plain area accounted for 47.29%,and the scale of the incident was mainly less than 10 cases,and the key places were families and schools.Using the Poisson distribution model,the main monthly frequency of public health emergencies in Fangshan district of Beijing was≥5times,the highest probability was from November to February of the next year,and the lowest was from May to June.Conclusions The prevention and control of public health emergencies in the Fangshan district of Beijing should focus on non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning and infectious diseases,new infectious diseases need to pay more attention to,high temperature heatstroke and food poisoning incidents should not be ignored.The key prevention and control sites are schools and families,and the key prevention and control time is winter and spring.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 流行特征 趋势分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]