基于分段式圆形分布法分析2017—2022年眉山市手足口病季节性特征  

Analysis on seasonal characteristics of HFMD in Meishan City based on segmented circular distribution method from 2017 to 2022

作　　者：张宇 李慧 胡昊 李静 罗桂英[1] 李杰[1] ZHANG Yu;LI Hui;HU Hao;LI Jing;LUO Guiying;LI Jie(Meishan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Meishan 620010,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]眉山市疾病预防控制中心,四川眉山620010

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2025年第1期14-19,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：眉山市指导性科技计划项目(项目编号:2023KJZD025)。

摘　　要：目的获取眉山市手足口发病季节性规律,尤其是发病高峰日期及范围,为精准实施手足口防控提供科学参考。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统导出发病日期在2017—2022年且现住址为眉山市的手足口病例信息,采用集中度、季节比率和圆形分布法分析其季节性特征,运用WPS 2022和SPSS 21.0软件作数据整理和计算,检验水准α=0.05。结果2017—2022年眉山市累计报告手足口患者24105例,年均报告发病率为134.98/10万,2020年发病率最低(77.00/10万),2018年发病率最高(225.63/10万),发病率呈隔年高发的波状分布;共报告手足口重症患者55例,重症率为0.23%。2017—2022年眉山市手足口发病集中度为0.74,有较强季节性特征,其中4月(218.64%)、5月(173.94%)、10月(126.55%)和11月(154.67%)季节指数均大于100%,发病数之和占发病总数的56.14%,提示为发病旺季;圆形分布表明手足口发病为双峰型分布,发病高峰为4月11日(3月6日至5月15日)和11月4日(10月3日至12月5日)。结论2017—2022年眉山市手足口病为隔年高发,重症率较低,发病时间具有较强季节性,呈主-次高峰双峰型,3至5月为主高峰,10至12月为次高峰,集中度和圆形分布法具有定量以及精确计算实际发病高峰日及高峰区间的优势,对于传染病防控工作具有重要意义。Objective To explore the seasonal regularity of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Meishan City,especially the peak date and range of HFMD,and to provide scientific reference for accurate implementation of the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods The monitoring data of HFMD in Meishan city from 2017 to 2022 was extracted from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System and analyzed by the methods of concentration,seasonal ratio and circular distribution.WPS 2022 and SPSS 21.0 software were used to organize and calculate the data,and the test standardα=0.05.Results From 2017 to 2022,a total of 24105 patients with HFMD were reported in Meishan City,with an average annual reported incidence of 134.98/105,the lowest incidence was in 2020(77.00/105)and the highest incidence was in 2018(225.63/105),showing a wave distribution of high incidence every other year.A total of 55 patients with severe HFMD were reported,with a severe rate of 0.23%.From 2017 to 2022,the incidence concentration of HFMD in Meishan City was 0.74,with strong seasonal characteristics,among which the seasonal index in April(218.64%),May(173.94%),October(126.55%)and November(154.67%)were all greater than 100%,and the sum of cases accounted for 56.14%of the total number of cases.It was suggested that it was the peak season.The circular distribution indicates a bimodal distribution of HFMD,with peak onset on April 11(March 6-May 15)and November 4(October 3-December 5).Conclusions From 2017 to 2022,HFMD in Meishan city has a high incidence every other year with a low rate of severe disease.The onset time has a strong seasonal pattern,showing a dual-peak pattern with the main peak from March to May and the secondary peak from October to December.The concentration and circular distribution method has the advantage of quantitatively and accurately calculating the actual peak days and peak ranges of the disease.It is of great significance for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

关 键 词：手足口病 分段式圆形分布法 季节比率 集中度 双峰型 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]