中国民众普遍信任的动态变迁——基于年龄−时期−世代效应的分析  

Changing trends of Chinese people's generalized trust:A dynamic analysis of the age-period-cohort effect

作　　者：高学德[1] 马号云 GAO Xuede;MA Haoyun(School of Management,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学管理学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《心理学报》2025年第3期463-478,I0018,I0019,共18页Acta Psychologica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(21FSHB024)。

摘　　要：利用中国综合社会调查数据(2003~2021),描述分析了中国民众普遍信任的动态变迁趋势及其影响因素。研究发现,普遍信任随个体年龄的增长呈现出“U”型曲线趋势(年龄效应),且随不同测量时期总体上呈现为上升趋势(时期效应),同时,普遍信任随不同世代呈倒“U”型趋势(世代效应):自1925世代起逐步上升,于1940世代由负转正,随后1945世代至1970世代间进入相对稳定的平台时期,1975世代后开始迅速下降,1990世代落到建国后的最低值,此后缓慢回升。研究还发现,亲属关系和收入差距对普遍信任的变迁产生显著的负向影响,而市场化系数、人口流动率、社会组织数量、平均受教育年限和政府信任指数等变量则对普遍信任的变迁产生正向影响。论文将普遍信任的历时性变迁特征嵌入到近百年来中国社会发展的不同阶段以及由此而生成的不同信任模式中加以解释,研究结果丰富了学术界对我国民众普遍信任变迁趋势的描述及其理论解释。Since the start of the Chinese Revolution in the early 20th century and the establishment of the People's Republic of China,China has undergone significant transformations in political,economic,social,and cultural aspects.These changes have significantly altered the values and social mentality of the Chinese people.They have disrupted traditional social bonds and trust networks,resulting in altered public trust.An analysis of the historical changes in general trust among the Chinese population is crucial for enhancing social governance and establishing a solid foundation for Chinese-style modernization.To accurately describe these trends,this study uses large-scale representative sample data(N=95,283)from the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)conducted between 2003 and 2021 by Renmin University of China.Employing a stratified age-period-cohort(HAPC)model,it analyzes the changing trends of general trust among Chinese individuals across three dimensions:age,period,and birth cohort,while also offering preliminary explanations for group differences.The study leads to six main conclusions:(1)General trust follows a"U-shaped"pattern with age,where middle-aged individuals have lower trust levels compared to both younger and older people.(2)Period effects exhibit an upward trend,marked by two significant points:a quick decline in general trust from 2003 to 2005,a stable phase from 2010 to 2015,and a notable rise in 2017.(3)The generational effect on general trust shows an inverted“U-shaped”trend.Trust gradually increases among the 1925 cohort,rises to positive levels by the 1940 cohort,stabilizes between the 1945 and 1970 generations,and sharply declines to the lowest point with the 1990 cohort.(4)Rural residents generally demonstrate higher levels of trust across most age groups,periods,and generations than urban residents,although this gap is narrowing over time.(5)Individuals with higher education levels exhibit greater general trust and more variability across different age groups.(6)Strong kinship ties and larg

关 键 词：普遍信任 年龄−时期−世代效应 社会变迁 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学] C91[哲学宗教—心理学]